Winter Storm Warning And Advisories Expanded For Sunday Snow

Saturday, January 1,8 Afternoon Update

Now that we are less than 24 hours away, the storm is coming into focus. Not one computer model has a true lock, but there is better agreement between the GFS and European, which has boosted confidence in the snow expectations.

Timeline: This will begin mid to late morning in Central Maryland. During the afternoon, snow may fall at the rate of 1 inch per hour at times. The worst conditions will be mid-afternoon to evening. Nearby in Philadelphia, there will be snow during the Eagles’ home playoff game. Snow will end as showers by midnight. Then, the arctic air moves in.

New Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued to match the snow amounts. I have adjusted my snow maps just a little from this morning. The main change is in the Cumberland Valley, which will have enough to overtake any downslope. I am also explaining my expectations for the southern areas, which may start wet and end with snow.

In this report, I have new maps to show the general timeline and behavior of this storm.

Winter Storm Alerts

Winter Storm Warning:

• Generally, 4 to 6 inches of snow. Spots of 7” or more along the MD and PA Line. It will be a dry snow with temps in the 20s, so it may ‘fluff up’.
• Expanded to western Montgomery and Howard counties in Maryland.
• Now includes South Central PA.
• The Cumberland Valley has been added, with a bump in snow overtaking the downslope I mentioned.

Winter Weather Advisory:

• Areas expecting 2 to 4 inches of snow. Includes Baltimore, Annapolis, Washington, and Philadelphia.
• There may be snow south of this region to end the event at night. So, additional advisories are expected.

My Updated  Call For Snowfall

Compare to the Model and NWS Maps below.

Model Forecast Maps

WHEN IT WILL START: Window 9 AM to Noon

The GFS Model brings snow into Baltimore around 10 AM.

The NAM 3Km (High Resolution) Model has it closer to noon.

Often, we get the first flakes up to one hour earlier than shown.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Temperatures may be close to freezing in the morning, then get colder during the day. Inland areas in the ‘Warning’ will drop into the mid to lower 20s. This will make it more difficult for road crews to clear snow, and travel will become very difficult and dangerous.

GFS Model

NAM 3 Km Model

Model Animations

NAM 3 Km 7 AM to Midnight

Heaviest snow will be during the afternoon and early evening… ending by 10 PM

GFS Model

This is the solution that looks most likely to me still.

7 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday

Snapshots

1 PM

4 PM – Peak Intensity

Compare Models

ECMWF Model

This is still farther east, but it allows the upper-level energy to catch up with the colder air, making up the difference.

Canadian Model

This model has continued to be the strongest and farthest inland. The latest run has dropped south a little, but it still has that rain line very close to the cities on I-95… I do not agree with this solution.

10 PM

Snow will fade to snow showers in the evening and end before midnight. Moderate to heavy snow will pass through New York and New England overnight.

Snow POTENTIAL Forecast

I ran these plots with a 10 to 1 ratio, not the Kuchera I did before. Those numbers looked a bit too high for my comfort to show.… These do not account for the ‘fluff’ factor in colder air where temps remain in the 20s…

GFS Model

European ECMWF Model

Closer to the GFS, adding to the confidence.

Canadian Model

This model came back lower (to reality) and a little farther south. But it still has the rain line around I-95.

National Weather Service Snow Forecast

From the Baltimore/Washington Office

This boosted the expectation for 6 inches or more in spots north of Baltimore.

My Updated  Call For Snowfall

Additional Maps

Monday Temperatures

Morning

Afternoon

Wind Chills

Inauguration Weather (when the decision was made to move inside)

Active Storm Pattern

I am showing these two possible close calls for Wednesday and Friday. I have LOW CONFIDENCE in them, but if they happen, it would ease the extreme cold that we have discussed happening midweek.

ECMWF Model 7 PM Tue to 1 PM Fri

7 Day Forecast

• After the snow, dangerously cold air will follow on Monday.
• We will remain BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY!
• Wind Chills will be lower!
• I have low confidence in the late-week snow chances, but I need to keep this a possibility.
• If we get the snow, that would mitigate the extreme cold (below zero) that has been discussed for Wednesday.

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SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON

Click on the maps for that full report.

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

Previous Snow

November 22 Snow Report

ALSO SEE

Arctic Outbreak For January

If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!

MY WINTER OUTLOOK

My Winter Outlook Report

FITF Gear on Sale

In Case You Missed This

The Faith In The Flakes Dec 5 Origin Story

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF