January 18 Winter Storm Warning Upgraded For Some And My New Call For Snowfall

January 18, 2025

Saturday Morning Report

Today starts with some rain and snow showers as mild air pushes in before the Polar Blast! Our focus will be on Sunday Snow!

Plan for an ALL-DAY EVENT, starting close to sunrise and ending at night. This will affect the Eagles football game in Philadelphia and the Ravens vs. Bills Watch Parties at night. I do not know about flights, but delays are very likely.

A Winter Storm Warning was UPGRADED for parts of Central Maryland. This is due to confidence in higher snowfall. The other areas will likely get additional alerts today.

Due to the widespread storm tracks with the big three main models, the uncertainty lies where sleet and freezing rain may mix in near the big cities and south. That is the wild card for snow totals, which is why my second call for snowfall map still holds room for more upside potential (if it ends up colder).

Winter Storm Alerts

The Warning has been issued for the typical colder counties in Central Maryland North and West of Baltimore and Washington.

Again, more alerts will be issued today, so if your county is not colored in, it should be later with an advisory or warning.

My Second Call For Sunday Snowfall

Please see the many maps below AND compare my call to the computer models and NWS forecasts.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY January 18

Sunrise at 7:23 AM

Sunset at 5:12 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  25ºF

Record -4ºF in 1957

Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF

Record 68ºF 1986; 1990

Baltimore Seasonal Snow

7.9”

Morning Temperatures

It will be a milder/seasonal day.

.

Morning Surface Weather

A band of snow and rain will pass through this morning as mild air flows in for the day.

The developing storm will organized across the Deep South….

Feeding behind it is the Polar Outbreak.

Radar Simulation

NAM 3 Km Through Midnight

Afternoon Temperatures

Sunday Weather

7 AM Temperatures

This may be the warmest time of the day, as arctic air will try to fill in…

7 AM Snapshot

I am using this GFS plot as the middle of the three models and the one that may have the best handle on it for now. I will compare the Canadian and Euro below.

Forecast Animation

GFS Model: 7 AM Sun to 7 AM Mon

AFTERNOON SNAPSHOTS/COMPARISON

Afternoon Temperatures

Suggestion that colder air will build as temps drop into the 20s. If this works out, then the snow type will be ‘dry’ which would fluff up the totals in the snow zone.

GFS Model

This has the snow along I-95 with the wintry mix just to the south. Moderate to heavy snow inland.

Canadian Model

This has continued to show the STRONGEST STORM AND FARTHEST NORTH.

The rain line is north of Baltimore and I-95….

Even though this was the stronger storm first, I think it is too ramped up and off with the track.

European ECMWF Model

This has continued to come back to the west with moderate snow. The main difference compared to the GFS is a weaker and much colder event. This has snow across most of Maryland, a big difference from the mix of rain for Annapolis and southward.

Sunday Night

The end of the storm (for us) will be after sunset while the storm dumps in New England.

Sunday Snow Total Potential

I am using the Kuchera Method (as I described here on Facebook last night)

GFS Model

This is modest and widespread.

Canadian Model

This is heavier in the snow zone but pushes it NORTH OF BALTIMORE.

European ECMWF Model

This is the coldest model with lighter snow.

National Weather Service (Baltimore Washington Office)

Click here to see other regional office snow maps

Repeat: My Second Call For Snowfall

Monday Temperatures

Morning

Afternoon

Wind Chills

Inauguration Weather (when the decision was made to move inside)

Active Storm Pattern

I am showing these two possible close calls for Wednesday and Friday. I have LOW CONFIDENCE in these, but if they happen, it would ease the extreme cold that we have discussed midweek.

ECMWF Model 7 PM Tue to 1 PM Fri

7 Day Forecast

• After the snow, dangerously cold air will follow on Monday.
• We will remain BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY!
• Wind Chills will be lower!
• I have low confidence in the late-week snow chances, but I need to keep this a possibility.
• If we get the snow, that would mitigate the extreme cold (below zero) that has been discussed for Wednesday.

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SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON

Click on the maps for that full report.

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

Previous Snow

November 22 Snow Report

ALSO SEE

Arctic Outbreak For January

If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!

MY WINTER OUTLOOK

My Winter Outlook Report

FITF Gear on Sale

In Case You Missed This

The Faith In The Flakes Dec 5 Origin Story

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF