Winter Storm Watch Issued In Some Counties So Far For Snow On Sunday

Friday, January 17 Afternoon Update

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for parts of Central Maryland for Sunday. This is from The National Weather Service based on the higher odds of 5 inches of snow 48 hours away. While other areas are not included, there will be more advisories to account for the refined snow totals.

In this report, I will show the breakdown of the three main computer models and compare and contrast the forecast tracks. There is a wide range, and I have my pick for the more likely solution. See those snow maps below.

Plan for an all-day snow event. I expect it to begin in the morning close to sunrise in metro Washington and Baltimore. This will last all day and affect Ravens vs Bills game watch parties.

Philadelphia will also get in on the snow, making for more entertainment for the Eagles home game.

Winter Storm Watch

• 6 AM to 9 PM Sunday, January 19: Plan for an all-day event starting in the morning.
• Expectation for around 5 inches of snow.
• Roads will be impacted,slowing travel.

National Weather Service Snow Forecast

From the Baltimore/Washington Office. More snow maps from the computer models I discuss below AND my first call for snowfall that still holds in line.

Click here to see more snow forecast maps from regional NWS Offices

This next winter weather event on Sunday will be on the leading edge of arctic air moving in next week. The challenge with this system is that the three main global computer models I use have all been split with the track and totals. These are guidance, not gospel. They provide support for how the storm may behave, but they are far from perfect.

One common question I get is which model is more reliable. Historically and this winter the European ECMWF Model leads the charge. However, with the extreme Polar Air on the way, I believe the model has had some trouble handling it. It has pushed the potential for a storm farther away and weaker.

This opened the door for another model solution to step up, and I believe that has been the Canadian. Back in the cold and stormy winter of 2014, I used this model with most events with great results. It handles the extreme polar air better, and I believe that can be credited to the fact that the air is coming from the deep regions of Canada… it’s home base territory.

The Canadian was first to show a moderate to strong storm along the I-95 corridor.

It remains the strongest with the most snow but also farthest inland and warmer.

I think it got us to this point, and the attention may shift to the American GFS Model. This has lagged behind the Euro in recent snow events. However, this time is maintaining the middle ground and remaining consistent with the snow zone.

So as we get into the data here, I want to say I am leaning towards the GFS solution now.

By tomorrow, we will have shorter-range High-Resolution Models to add to the mix to refine all the details.

Comparison:

GFS to Canadian

Here we can see the results of the track shift:

The GFS keeps most of the state under snow or ice, with the snow on the edge of Baltimore and Washington.

The stronger Canadian now puts the rain line North of Baltimore.

Model Forecast Maps

Here, we will look at the animations and key time frames. Then put all the snow totals up for comparison together.

GFS Model

This is the solution that looks more likely to me (now).

4 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday

Snapshots

Morning

Afternoon

Night

Canadian Model

This is the solution that looks too strong and too far north (right now).

4 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday

Snapshots

Morning

Afternoon

Night

European Model

This solution has come back west and brings more snow across metro areas. It still may be missing some of the energy aloft (as I described last night)… So, this may still be a little low.

7 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday

Snapshots

Early Afternoon

Evening

Overnight

Snow POTENTIAL Forecast

I ran these plots with a 10 to 1 ratio, which may not account for the ‘fluff’ factor in colder air where temperatures remain in the 20s…

GFS Model

Canadian Model

Stronger with heavier snow but farther north with the rain line.

European ECMWF Model

Closer to the GFS but still lower with snow totals… Again a function of missing some of the upper-level energy and making for a weaker weather system.

National Weather Service Snow Forecast

From the Baltimore/Washington Office

My First Call For Snowfall

Issued Last Night: I keep the UPSIDE POTENTIAL and may add more in my next report.

Polar Air Unleashed

Jet Stream: Sunday To Thursday

The core of the cold air is expected to reach our region by Wednesday.

Wednesday Morning Temperatures

The DEEP FREEZE will reach the Gulf Coast and parts of Florida.

Wednesday Morning Temperatures (Local)

These are actual forecast numbers on the thermometer.

7 Day Forecast

The focus is on Sunday with accumulating snow.

Monday will be one of the coldest Inauguration Days in US History. Then, on Tuesday and Wednesday, the core of the polar cold will arrive.

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SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON

Click on the maps for that full report.

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

Previous Snow

November 22 Snow Report

ALSO SEE

Arctic Outbreak For January

If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!

MY WINTER OUTLOOK

My Winter Outlook Report

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In Case You Missed This

The Faith In The Flakes Dec 5 Origin Story

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF