Sunday Snow Update And My First Call

Thursday, January 16 2025

We are within the 3-day window of our next snow event, so it is time to make a first call. This is the stuff that jokes are made of. I will be showing the BIG THREE Global Models I used primarily to explore the storm potential. Among them, there is a wide range of solutions, and the snow range is pretty much between 2 and 10 inches. That does not cover everyone, but it helps make my point.

This report will focus on the two extremes because they help show why there is such a difference. I will also show the snow potential from the three models and my First Call For Snowfall.

This will be a Sunday event and I would plan for some impact during the afternoon and evening.

Notes:

• The snow we got today and recent events have shown me that there may be more energy in the atmosphere than the models are identifying.
• I have been very vocal, frequently demonstrating that the European ECMWF Model is KING! It has been the most reliable all winter and in most years.
• We are in a polar-dominated pattern. Since the winter of 2014, I have seen that the Canadian Model (GEM, now GDPS) operates very well. The home nation is based in the source region of the extremely cold air, which may give it the edge.
• That said, the Canadian model is pushing the strongest storm with the most snow and a rain line in Maryland. I have my reservations about going for the top snow at this time. The European Model is actually the weakest and farthest away.
• One last thing: Weather events have a tendency to arrive earlier than first thought. So I will be watching the alignment of all forces as well as the arrival shifting. For now, I think Sunday afternoon is a good benchmark.

Take A Look:

The Canadian model shows heavy snow at 4 PM. The American GFS is the mid-range solution, with moderate snow in the evening at 7 PM. The European Model is also at 7 PM, with a quick burst of moderate snow… in the same areas that the Canadian has with rain.

What’s Happening And Why

To see this, we need to look at the Jet Stream. Here is a look at the Winds and Vorticity (spin) at the 500 MB, which is roughly 18,000 feet above the ground.

Heights and Winds

The height of 500mb will change with temperature, which is plotted here.

Jet Streak: 100 knots + fast pocket of wide within the general flow. I marked this with a white circle. This energy will help the development of a storm at cloud level.

Canadian Model: The jet streak is right along the arbitrary Arctic boundary. This lines up with Low Pressure at the surface to inject more energy for rapid development and moderate to heavy precipitation in the cold air.

European ECMWF Model: The jet stream is farther south… away from that arctic boundary. This splits the energy and pushes the surface Low farther east and away making for a weaker system.

Vorticity

This is the spin at the jet stream level.

The Canadian Model has the Vort Max (circled) in the same region as the Jet Streak.

The ECMWF Model has a less pronounced spin. If there is a vort max to identify, it is smaller and stretched out behind the Surface Low and jet streak. Basically the energy is NOT lined up, which is why this produces a weaker weather event farther off the coast.

Surface Weather Plot

7 PM Sunday

The Canadian Model at this time has the Low pass by our region, but wrap-around snow will linger in the snow area. It also has rain across Southern Maryland/Delmarva.

The European Model has the Surface Low much farther away with less energy. It does pull the colder air to the coast, so all snow. But only a small region with a brief moderate burst.

GFS: Splitting The Difference

This plot is the mid-range and produces a decent snow event.

Just for fun, let’s look at the storm animations.

Canadian Model:

7 AM Saturday to 7 AM Monday

European Model

7 AM Saturday to 7 AM Monday

Snow Potential

This is each model call based on a 10 to 1 ratio.

Canadian

This shows the most snow, but I cannot jump on this yet.

GFS Model

This is the middle of the road for a change…. It shows widespread moderate snow.

ECMWF Model

This is the weak solution and the lowest amount of snow.

National Weather Service

If you check the NWS site or have their forecast in your app, note that this map produced Thursday night only goes through Sunday night. This is NOT THE FULL EVENT.

My First Call For Snowfall

I have low confidence in this and will be making a quick update with the next round of data.

At this time, I feel it is best to suggest 2 to 4 inches of snow for most of the region. There is a lot of upside potential.

Southern Maryland and Delmarva need to consider if there is a stronger storm, there may be warm air mixing in with rain for part of the event.

The high mountains pretty much get a few inches of snow if you sneeze these days! I feel safe suggesting they get more heavy snow.

Next up: My morning weather post around 6:30 AM, followed by another full update on this weather event midday Friday.

Faith in the Flakes

Polar Air Unleashed

Jet Stream: Sunday To Wednesday

The core of the cold air is expected to reach our region by Wednesday.

Wednesday Morning Snapshot

Wednesday Morning Temperatures

Wednesday Morning Temperatures (Local)

These are actual forecast numbers on the thermometer.

Wednesday Morning Wind Chills (Local)

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SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON

Click on the maps for that full report.

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

Previous Snow

November 22 Snow Report

ALSO SEE

Arctic Outbreak For January

If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!

MY WINTER OUTLOOK

My Winter Outlook Report

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In Case You Missed This

The Faith In The Flakes Dec 5 Origin Story

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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF