Thursday Morning Update
January 16 2025
The system we were expecting today has already produced morning snow showers and flurries. It has arrived earlier than expected, which may be the precursor for an overachieving event.
There is more on the way and it looks to be a little stronger. In prior reports, I mentioned a coating of snow. The burst of snow, along with very cold ground, may allow for up to 1 inch in spots during the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures are cold enough this morning. There may be a bump above freezing in the cities for an hour or two, but the ground is cold enough to support stickage OR if it is wet, can ice over quickly this evening.
I know plow operators may be pretreating in anticipation.
In this report: New forecast simulation maps, live radar, and snow total maps are below.
There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for this afternoon and evening commute. A period of snow is POSSIBLE (a 30 to 50 percent chance) this afternoon and evening across the Baltimore and Washington metro areas with up to a half inch of accumulation on area roads. If this threat does materialize this afternoon and evening rush-hour, many roads could quickly turn snow covered. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions on untreated surfaces. If commuting this afternoon and evening, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time.
There may be a quick rise in temps mid-afternoon, but the ground has been sufficiently chilled. So, any snow that falls will have a chance to stick.
The snow has lined up in bands and one has moved through already. The next push will be the stronger one… with a warm front.
A burst of snow mid-afternoon to the evening will be followed by milder air for a few days.
This is not color-coded to separate snow from rain, but it will give an idea of where the ‘stuff’ is setting up.
This is a suggestion and IS NOT PERFECT. Often we see more on the actual radar than shown by this product.
The problem driving areas:
This is just a guide for timing.
Note that we can see the snow arrive up to 1 hour faster than shown here.
Roads may be covered north of Baltimore into Southern PA.
Metro Baltimore and Central Maryland Timing: 4 PM to 9 PM.
Snow crosses Northern Delmarva and remains in the high mountains.
(From my morning report)
We will get a surge of mild air with rain showers just ahead of the Arctic boundary. As the leading edge of that air mass arrives, there is still a hint of snow (light) breaking out Sunday night into Monday morning.
As we enter a truly arctic pattern, I will shift my focus on the Canadian Model and compare it to the European one. This is when it has historically done its best, considering that the air supply is coming from Canada, after all.
This is not a wish cast, just what I have shared with you for years.
The Canadian is trying to produce a snowstorm just along the coast, while the Euro is losing it.
The core of the cold air is expected to reach our region by Wednesday.
These are actual forecast numbers on the thermometer.
Briefly mild air for two days, then we watch for possible snow on Sunday.
After this passes, the Polar Air gets UNLEASHED.
The coldest day is expected to be Wednesday.
Click on the maps for that full report.
If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
