January 16 Light Snow Today With A Warning For The Mountains: Watching Sunday Snow And Polar Air Next Week

January 16, 2025

Thursday Morning Report

For me it makes sense to see some snow today. My older son turns 19 today. By kindergarten he was my partner behind Faith in the Flakes AND the Kid Weather App by kindergarten, so this is for him.

We will get some light snow showers by midday, then a burst in the evening. This may coat the ground in Central Maryland and north to southern PA. Heavier snow in the mountains has prompted A Winter Storm Warning for Garrett County, MD.

Mild air will push in on Friday and Saturday. This may bring light rain to start the weekend, then the bottom will fall out.

Sunday is split on the impact of snow on the leading edge of polar air. The coldest air will be here by Wednesday morning.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY January 16

Sunrise at 7:24 AM

Sunset at 5:10 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  25ºF

Record 1ºF in 1893

Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF

Record 71ºF 1953

Baltimore Drought Update

8.00 Inch Deficit For 2024

Morning Temperatures

Very cold.

Morning Surface Weather

The impulse with the snow burst is a circulation along a Warm Front. This will push the snow eastward, and milder air will follow Friday and Saturday.

Winter Storm Warning

Radar Simulation: HRRR Model  7 AM to 9 PM

The problem driving areas:

• I-68 West
• I-70 West of Breezewood
• I-81 North of Harrisburg

11 AM

The first band of snow flurries may reach metro areas before lunchtime.

Steady snow all day will fall over the mountains.

Temperatures

It will be cold enough for stickage.

Afternoon Temperatures

Evening Snapshot

The burst of snow into metro areas will come after dark and may lay down a coating of snow, of up to 1/2 inch.

Snow Potential: ECMWF Model

Snow Forecast: National Weather Service

Friday Weather

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Weekend Outlook

We will get a surge of mild air with rain showers just ahead of the Arctic boundary. As the leading edge of that air mass arrives, there is still a hint of snow (light) breaking out Sunday night into Monday morning.

Sunday Snow

As we get into a truly arctic pattern, I will shift my focus on the Canadian Model and compare it to the European one. This is when it has historically done its best…. Considering that the air supply is coming from Canada, after all.

This is not a wish cast, just what I have shared with you for years.

The Canadian is trying to produce a snowstorm just along the coast, while the Euro is losing it.

Polar Air Unleashed

Jet Stream: Sunday To Wednesday

The core of the cold air is expected to reach our region by Wednesday.

Wednesday Morning Snapshot

Wednesday Morning Temperatures

Wednesday Morning Temperatures (Local)

These are actual forecast numbers on the thermometer.

Wednesday Morning Wind Chills (Local)

7 Day Forecast

Briefly mild air for two days, then we watch for possible snow on Sunday.

After this passes, the Polar Air gets UNLEASHED.

The coldest day is expected to be Wednesday.

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SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON

Click on the maps for that full report.

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

Previous Snow

November 22 Snow Report

ALSO SEE

Arctic Outbreak For January

If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!

MY WINTER OUTLOOK

My Winter Outlook Report

FITF Gear on Sale

In Case You Missed This

The Faith In The Flakes Dec 5 Origin Story

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF