Snow For Thursday And Sunday Then Polar Air Gets Unleashed Next Week

Wednesday January 15 2025

There is a lot to talk about with this next round of winter weather. The week ahead will feature a few stages and there are a lot of details. In this post, I want to focus on the big impacts and know the fine details will be explored as we get closer to each event.

Headlines:

• Thursday Light Snow: A coating or a little more around Baltimore and north.
• Winter Storm Warning in Garrett County and the high mountains for nearly 1/2 Foot.
• Saturday may bring rain showers ahead of the arctic front
• Sunday: Still watching for a band of snow in the afternoon and evening.
• Raven Game watch parties may be affected.
• The Polar Air: We will feel it Monday and Tuesday. The COLDEST ON WEDNESDAY

Set Up Tonight

A ‘short wave’ in the atmosphere looks like a Clipper diving through the Great Lakes. This vigorous circulation will hit the mountains hard, and allow some snow to flow eastward on Thursday.

Thursday Snow

Winter Storm Warning

This alert is for Garrett Count and the high mountains for heavy snow. There is a Winter Weather Advisory around metro Pittsburgh.

There is no alert at this time for Southern Pennsylvania or Central Maryland as the light snow is not expected to reach the threshold of 1 inch. But it still may coat the ground and slow travel.

Radar Simulation

Note that a radar forecast is imperfect. There may be snow showers and flurries that fly and don’t show on radar during the day as well.

HRRR Model 7 AM to 11 AM

This high resolution model shows the impulse may bring the first flakes to Central Maryland by late morning.

Snapshot at 11 AM

Light snow may reach York, Westminster, and even Baltimore.

Temperatures

Most of the region will remain in the 20s, so any snow that falls will stick.

NAM 3 Km Model 7 AM to Midnight

The timing here is later, but still shows a few hours with snow showers through the afternoon, then ending in the evening.

2 PM

Temperatures

6 PM

9 PM

How Much Snow?

Just enough to coat the ground and maybe spotty road issues at times.

Road Concerns: More snow North on I-81 in Pennsylvania AND west on I-68 in Western Maryland; I-70 in Western PA.

ECMWF Model Snow Forecast

National Weather Service Snow Forecast

Looking In To The Weekend

Here is the forecast animation from Saturday Morning to Monday Morning. This will help show the how the light rain on Saturday will move through, allowing for colder air to follow.

I reserve my first call for snowfall until 72 hours ahead of an event. So here is a look at how it may play out. My call for how much we may get will be issued on Thursday.

Saturday Afternoon Surface Weather

Heading in to the weekend, milder air (40s) will flow in to the Mid Atlantic. This will develop rain showers before the next round of cold air arrives.

Sunday 3-Model Spread

This is why computers have not taken over the world yet.  These three Global Computer Model Simulations have very different solutions for Sunday.

• The European ECMWF (top) has been the MOST CONSISTENT and is where I am leaning….
• Timing: Sunday afternoon and evening…
• The Canadian (middle)  has a much STRONGER STORM/INLAND
• The GFS Model (bottom) is LATER AND FARTHER SOUTH. This did bump north a little from prior runs.

Since The Euro has been the most reliable, I am sticking with this model for the rest of this report.

SUNDAY SNOW

The timing has sped up a little earlier as expected. This happens quite often with winter weather events. We are not looking at mid day through Sunday evening for snow.  This is a jet streak in the arctic air. There is no organized system involved, just fast winds aloft with very cold air to support snow and stickage.

4 PM Temperatures

Central Maryland will be in the mid to upper 20s.

4 PM Surface Weather

Low Pressure will be well off the coast. That’s not the focus. The band of moderate snow has shifted a little southward compared to yesterday’s runs.  North Central Virginia through Washington and Annapolis may be in the target for moderate snow.

7 PM

10 PM

Jet Stream: Arctic Air Unleashed

7 AM Sunday to 7 AM Wednesday

I know the Polar Vortex gets overused. That will actually be along the Canadian border. The deep arctic air will be flowing into the US for a few days.

We will get into the cold air right after the snow event, but the COLDEST may be WEDNESDAY MORNING.

Wednesday Morning Temperatures

This is the forecast actual readings on the thermometer.  This does not include the wind chill that maybe dangerously lower.

Recap:

Thursday snow locally will be light, but cold enough to stick.   Sunday snow will be moderate with more accumulation…. Looking like more south again.  Then the coolest air in a few years will arrive for the first half of the work week,

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SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON

Click on the maps for that full report.

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

Previous Snow

November 22 Snow Report

ALSO SEE

Arctic Outbreak For January

If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!

MY WINTER OUTLOOK

My Winter Outlook Report

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In Case You Missed This

The Faith In The Flakes Dec 5 Origin Story

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF