Thursday Afternoon Update January 8, 2025
The next winter weather event is going to produce a band of snow and ice that will track eastward across the US. This track is a little farther south than our recent storm and will impact places like Dallas, TX, with moderate snowfall.
The timing and local impact are similar to the last system, even though it is farther south and not as strong. I am leaning towards an overnight arrival on Friday, so we wake up Saturday morning to snow. The same places that saw more snow Monday have the best chance with this system as well, meaning less to the north.
This will end during the afternoon and be gone by Saturday night for the Ravens game hosting the Steelers.
A major snow and ice impact from Dallas to Atlanta over the next two days. A minor impact is expected for our southern areas in Southern Maryland and Virginia.
A Winter Storm Warning is in place for Dallas to Little Rock, where 3 to 6 inches of snow may fall, with some higher amounts.
A Winter Weather Advisory for lighter snow in Southern New Mexico, Western Texas, and Oklahoma.
The Winter Storm Watch extends to Atlanta to the east, with a longer lead time ahead of the event reaching there. This storm will bring freezing rain south and snow to the north edge. It will be upgraded to an Advisory or Warning by tomorrow.
Here on the East Coast we are not in the time window yet for prompts and alerts. But a Watch is likely to be issued for the Carolinas, Virginia, and parts of Maryland where we expect the event Saturday morning.
ECMWF Model
Tracking the Gulf Coast Low to the East Coast Departure.
This model has been the most consistent, and I believe it is worth relying on again.
This is stronger and farther north but has lost some of its punch. It still appears to be a little overdone (again).
This may be overplaying the dry air. It has a void of moisture near and north of Baltimore.
Compare to the Model Snow Forecast Maps Below
Much of the region can expect roughly 1 inch of snow. The totals will be lower north of Baltimore, where there was less snow on Monday.
I have in Southern Maryland 1 to 2 inches, with a possible push to 3 inches in some spots.
There will be additional snow in the western mountains. Also, a little more energy with support from the Great Lakes in Central Pennsylvania.
This is the most reasonable to me at this time.
The highest amount of snow.
The lowest amount of snow.
If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!
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