New Winter Storm To Form In East Texas And Southern US And More Mid Atlantic Snow Saturday

Tuesday Night, January 7 Update

We just validated our first winter storm of the season and are still cleaning up tonight. Bitter cold winds, drifting, and black ice are the current issues, but we need to shift focus to the next storm about to take form.

Before we get started, our home base in the Mid-Atlantic has added interest with the timing of this on Saturday and the Ravens hosting the Steelers in Baltimore. At this time, I expect light snow and rain earlier in the day. If we get a larger storm, it would be the GFS Model that is on to the setup, but it is an outlier.

Storm Animation: ECMWF

Thursday Morning to Saturday Night

This is an East Texas Low riding the Southern Branch of the Jet Stream.

A storm is expected to start with moderate snow for Dallas, TX and cross the Southern States. It will make headlines for a few days. The question is if it will track north or along the coast.

Winter Storm Severity Index

This only goes through Friday Morning … So it is not completely to the coast.

The Major to Extreme Impact is for heavy snow and ice across Arkansas.

Winter Storm Watch

National Weather Service Maps

Just for the fun of it, I wanted to show you the headlines from Dallas to Little Rock.

NWS Dallas

NWS Little Rock

Comparing Models:

ECMWF Vs. GFS

The ECMWF Model was best with the last storm, keeping it farther south, and I need to lead with this as the most likely scenario. However, it has nudged a little north while the GFS dropped south, and they are closer to a similar solution.

The GFS has a stronger storm, which is why it pulls farther north.

Saturday Morning

There is a similarity between the two models. The subtle difference is that the ECMWF is a little weaker and a little farther south of the GFS plot for Low Pressure.

Saturday Afternoon Jet Stream

This is where the difference lies. The ECMWF Model does not allow the northern and southern branches of the jet stream to phase (merge), allowing the Low to move out to the Atlantic farther south.

The GFS Model DOES PHASE. This takes the stronger Low farther north and up the coast. A small Nor’easter (if this happens, there would be a pocket of moderate to heavy snow in the same areas that just got the heavy snow on Monday.

Saturday Afternoon

The difference between light snow ending or a strong storm along the coast.

Storm Animations

Friday Morning to Saturday Night

The good news for football fans is that whatever happens is set for earlier in the day and would be ending at night .

ECMWF Model

GFS Model

Afternoon Snapshots

ECMWF Model

This is the solution I am leaning towards. It would be a minor accumulation event.

GFS Model

This is much more robust, with a heavier accumulation in the same areas that just got moderate to heavy snow.

I am not sold on this yet.

My Thoughts:

The ECMWF Model deserves the lead with the best and most consistent call for the last storm.

I have seen it come a little north, but no major adjustments yet.

At this time I would plan for light snow Saturday morning. The rest is still low confidence. If the storm does start to take form, then the GFS would be doing something rare and win.

I will be nowcasting the strength of Low Pressure and location for any minor adjustments. As we saw with the Monday event, in the northern suburbs of Baltimore…  as little as 30 miles can make or break the amount of snow that may fall.

But there is a chance…. Any Given ‘Saturday’

No Snow Call Yet. I will make my first call by Wednesday evening.

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January 6 Snow Report

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If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!

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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF