Evening Update January 6, 2025
This first winter storm of the season and the first in three years has one more part to it tonight. The snow hit expectations across most of Southern Maryland, Metro Washington, up to Baltimore, and to the east for most of Delmarva. However, the northern suburbs into southern PA busted my forecast on the lower end. There is a chance for a little more, just for posterity.
Daily snowfall records were set:
These were numbers and maps from this afternoon. The final numbers will be posted tomorrow.
The Winter Storm Warning AND Snow Emergencies are still in place. There is a new Cold Weather Advisory for the Lower Eastern Shore… We need to consider the BITTERLY COLD Wind Chills that will be felt tomorrow.
Here is a quick look and brief view of the risk of another hit this weekend.
Let’s take a look…
The entire state of Maryland is under a warning! Heavy snow is likely to be over 6 inches, and many areas near or above 12” possible to overachieve.
The Surface Low that helped enhance the snow is moving off the coast from the Outer Banks, NC.
The upper-level energy is the second part that will follow through tonight. It has a cluster of light to moderate snow with it.
We expect this to pass through for a few hours and be done by midnight.
Behind this is extremely cold air, and with the aid of snowpack, it will settle in tomorrow.
The spin with the Upper Low can be seen moving through West Virginia.
HRRR Model: 7 PM to Midnight
This should bring a few hours of snow with an additional coating of 2 inches.
It will end before midnight.
I know some areas did not hit the mark on the north side. I will have a storm recap and Grade My Forecast On Tuesday,
Winds will stay brisk and gusty all day. Gusts from 30 to 40 mph will be very uncomfortable and even dangerous to be exposed to for more than 10 minutes without proper clothing.
ECMWF has it only bringing light snow and moving off the coast.
GFS Model has it phasing the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. This would produce a strong coastal storm and could bring heavy snow later in the day through the Northeast.
If this happens, it could compromise the Ravens home playoff game against the Steelers.
While the ECMWF Model is known for doing a better job, the GFS has an idea worth considering. This Atmospheric Memory would be at play. This model does have a better record with follow up storms.
So the jury is out and I am keeping a 50% chance for this to happen.
If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!
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