Sunday, January 5 2025
The long-anticipated storm is now in the central US and on a track nearly due East. Along the path today, there is a Blizzard Warning for metro Kansas City and an Ice Storm Warning across southern Missouri and Illinois. There will be a fine line between the heaviest snow and icing that we need to track all the way to the Maryland coast.
We have Winter Storm Warnings for heavy snow and ice and Winter Weather Advisories for less snow, with details below.
I have lots of maps below, including my updated snow forecast and many computer models to compare.
This may be the biggest snowfall, for example, in Baltimore since 6.8 inches fell 3 years ago on January 3, 2022. If we surpass that, the next largest storm was 29.2 inches that fell from January 22 to 24 in 2016. That was the largest on record locally and will not be challenged.
The challenge is roughly 100 miles of where this will track and battle between the warm air advection feeding in the moisture and the cold air in place. That 100 miles may separate a wide range of low to high snow and southern parts with snow and ice.
I understand there is doubt and criticism of this being hyped. I do my best to present the information I see and hold myself accountable after the event. Let’s see the impact zone as shown by NOAA.
Low Pressure was plotted just north of Oklahoma City. Blizzard conditions and warnings on the north side include metro Kansas City. The ice plot (purple) is just a little north of where the ECMWF Model had it forecasted. These subtle details are part of the process today we call Nowcasting.
The models are split on the track in our direction, so this will not be an easy call.
There is a difference in calculations and results from the longer-range models to the short-range solutions. I want to contrast them here with the European ECMWF to the American NAM 3 Km Model.
I have a more detailed look at these models and additions snow maps below.
This tracks the heavier snow into Southern Maryland.
This tracks the heavier snow a little north into central Maryland and Southern PA. It also pushed the heavy icing north into Southern Maryland, which would drastically change the amount of snow they receive.
Winter Storm Warning:
This includes HEAVY SNOW and mixed with icing on the south side.
Winter Weather Advisory:
Is for less snow to the north.
This map is very similar to my first call. It is my best ‘guess’ at this time.
I increased the snow expectations in the middle zone, covering metro areas and the Chesapeake Bay to the coast.
A 100-mile shift can make the difference between busting with either more ice and heavy snow shifting north or the snow band pushing south.
This is purely for entertainment and to show the wide variety of solutions. Not one model is perfect!
My next full update will be this afternoon.
Faith in the Flakes. We will get snow!
#FITF
If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
