Saturday Morning, January 4 2025
A large winter storm is moving through the Rockies. It will push into the Central Plains and get better organized. This event has been tracked for a long time and still has complications for what it will bring. There is high confidence that there will be an impact across the US starting Sunday in the Mid West and then Monday across the Mid-Atlantic. This will affect schools and work travel.
I am going to show the broader view, then focus more on the Mid-Atlantic (home base) and highlight that the two main computer models represent the wide spread. The other models we review are tracking in between.
Wider View (closer look below)
Note: The Warning is an UPGRADE just based on time… when the event is expected to begin within 24 hours. More details on the local advisory map below.
Large areas are in Moderate to Major, with both snow and freezing rain/ice storm.
This has continued to track the start farther south… bringing the heavier snow band South of I-70 and a major ice storm for Southern Illinois, most of Kentucky, and Southern Virginia.
This continues to track a little north, bringing the heavier snow near and North of I-70. This pushes that heavier snow into Pennsylvania.
It also introduces the sleet and freezing rain into Washington and Baltimore.
Our region will mostly be affected on Monday. This includes a Warning for the mountains to begin earlier… by Sunday Evening.
Compare Snow (and ice) Forecast Maps
A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent.
The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period).
I am confident on this lower end, with the potential to go higher. We need to consider the potential for ice creeping farther north and affecting totals in the DMV (DC, Maryland, Virginia) region.
This tracks farther south and moves away earlier.
This tracks farther north, then tries to redevelop off the coast like a Miller B. This keeps the snow going longer into Tuesday morning.
It also brings in sleet and Freezing Rain close to Washington and Baltimore.
These ONLY go through 7 PM on Monday. That may not be the end of the storm.
Notice the WIDE RANGE. There is low confidence in totals.
Compare the overlapping areas, and you will notice they are NOT THE SAME. Compare Southern Pennsylvania and Delmarva.
Reminder: This is what I see as a conservative call. There is potential to go higher, and you will see those higher numbers in the model plots below.
This is considered a baseline for a major storm in the Mid-Atlantic metro areas.
Model Consistency and or consensus. Is there a trend in one direction with the track, or is one model getting closer to the other, holding stronger?
Nowcasting: Seeing how the models verify 6 to 12 hours after each run to identify any bias.
I believe we need to take the GFS model seriously, with the track and influence of an icy mix.
If and when I see a significant reason, I will make updates. This will include adding a more realistic higher end OR where the icy may mix in.
Faith in the Flakes, We will get snow!
#FITF
If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
