Saturday January 4 2025
As the storm gets closer, the upgrade from Watch to Advisory or Warning is part of the process. This is a matter of timing and intensity. A Winter Storm Warning has been posted into Central Virginia AND Southern Maryland where the heaviest snow is expected to fall. Those in a watch area will get their upgrade as we get closer due to lower snow expectations. These may be up to a warning or advisory depending on the final snow forecast amounts.
This storm is charging almost due east across the country. I want to show the wider view and then focus more on the Mid-Atlantic.
My closer look at the Mid-Atlantic is below.
Click here to see the new report and my updated forecast
Large areas are in Moderate to Major, with both snow and freezing rain/ice storm.
This is when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent.
Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of:
1) 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period.
AND/OR
2) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines.
AND/OR
3) A life-threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind.
The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period).
The cold air is locked in place across the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest.
The storm is still crossing the Rockies. Once it is ejected east into the plains states, it will become better organized. The low-pressure plot will be more refined and easier to track across to the coast.
ECWMF Model: Sunday Morning to Tuesday Morning
From NWS: Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 9 inches, with amounts of 10 to 12 inches possible in isolated spots if heavy banding sets up in this area. Ice accumulations of a trace possible near Interstate 66.
The track of the heavy snow band is likely to extend east, as shown on the forecast maps below.
Central Maryland and Southern Pennsylvania
Less snow is expected here, and there is more time to confirm the upgrade to a Warning or Advisory depending on how much snow is likely.
This is my map from last night. It is still holding up well, with the exception of plotting the Heavy Snow Zone. I will update this later tonight.
These may match up with the snow amounts you are seeing on your weather apps.
Heaviest snow in the mountains and then along and South of I-70.
Focus on the heaviest snow near and south of Baltimore. This includes Annapolis and Easton.
That heavy snow zone onto Maryland’s Eastern Shore and Delaware is why I expect the Warning to be expanded here.
Notice the southern zones are still on the fence with moderate to heavy snow. There may be more Advisories issued here instead of warnings.
I did an analysis on social media to show any trends on the GFS and ECWMF Models from last night to today.
For simplicity, I am posting the links to those Facebook Posts here so I can focus on material for the next report.
Trending a little south… to catch up with the Euro.
Holding pretty steady… keeping the heavier snow track south of Baltimore
I will have a new report with my updated snow map and any new Warnings or Advisories tomorrow morning.
#FITF
Yes, there is another storm possible next weekend.
If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!
Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring Winter Weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November To March Click to see more and send a request for your school.
The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.
Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.
Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.
Click here or the image to donate:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
