My First Call For Snowfall Monday January 6 2025

Friday Evening Report

I am writing this on January 3 and realized that this is the anniversary of 6.8 inches of snow falling on Baltimore in 2022. We have a chance to reach that mark again for the first time in three years.

Now that the first Mid-Atlantic Slider is over, we can shift gears to the larger event. I have done a lot of analysis, and there is more to go. At this point, we are in the window to start making calls for snowfall.

As much as I love snow, I have learned in my 30 years of professional forecasting that it is BEST TO START CONSERVATIVELY. Even if there is potential for a big thump of snow, I would rather ramp my numbers up as we get closer. If I put out a large number and then pull it back down, it can look like crying wolf.

I need to mention that because after showing my forecast map, I will show you FOUR Computer models forecast snow maps. There are some BIG NUMBERS that would make for the largest since 2016. But computer model guidance for snowfall is OFTEN higher than actually verifies. There is also a lot of history with the tendency to keep storms too far south, so they appear to bump north at the end.  This can play a big role in the snow DUMP zone and where the icing reaches.

Quick Highlights

• Snow will develop After Midnight on Sunday Night. By daybreak Monday morning, it will be snowing at moderate to high intensity across the Mid-Atlantic.
• Schools and work will be affected
• I expect Winter Storm Watches will be issued this weekend, then a warning by Sunday as we get closer.
• The reliable European Model has been most consistent, but it has trended SOUTHWARD, putting heavier snow South of Baltimore.
• The American GFS Model has been bouncing around but has a history of high performance within 72 hours. This tracks North with heavy snow and a possible icy mix reaching central Maryland. It also puts heavier snow farther north into Pennsylvania.
• I will show the Canadian GEM Model and German ICON Model, which display snow in the middle range but are still impressive.

Compare Storm Tracks 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday

European ECMWF Model

This tracks farther south and moves away earlier.

American GFS Model

This tracks farther north, then tries to redevelop off the coast like a Miller B. This keeps the snow going longer into Tuesday morning.

Odds For 6 Inches Of Snow

This is considered a baseline for a major storm in the Mid-Atlantic metro areas.

Note that it also includes snow from today and this weekend in the mountains…

ECMWF Model

There is a 40% chance for Baltimore to hit this mark, but 80% into Southern Maryland.

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GFS Model

70% chance for Baltimore to hit this mark.

Lots More Model Maps Below

Compare My Call To Computer Model Snow Plots

I am staying lower for now…

My Call For Snowfall

Reminder: This is what I see as a conservative call. There is potential to go higher, and you will see those higher numbers in the model plots below.

Deeper Model Look

3 Panel Plot Monday Afternoon

We can see the GFS and Canadian still generating snow and ice.

The European is faster and almost ending.

3 Panel Plot: Frontal Forcing

Monday Afternoon

The dynamics of the GFS Model show why this is slower with the storm. The energy with rapid lifting is over Central Maryland. This is what would produce heavy snow and slow the storm down compared to the other solutions.

Computer Model Forecast Maps

From High To Low Based Around Baltimore

GFS Model

Canadian GEM Model

German ICON Model

European ECMWF Model

Note:

There are bound to be more fluctuations as the storm moves inland from the West Coast and redevelops as it heads our way.

What I am now looking for:

• Model Consistency and or consensus
• Nowcasting: Seeing how the models verify 6 to 12 hours after each run to identify any bias.
• If and when I see a significant reason for this, I will make updates. This will include adding a more realistic higher end OR where the ice may mix in.

Faith in the Flakes, We will get snow!

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Arctic Outbreak For January

If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF