Snow Burst Friday Then A Larger Winter Storm Sunday Night And Monday

Thursday, January 2 2025

Two winter events are about to swing through the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The track will be similar and will provide us with a lot of useful information. The way the snow plays out on Friday will help set up the track for the next storm and show how the models are behaving.

Also, any layer of snow will help refrigerate the ground and hold in the cold for the next event.

Friday will bring a burst of snow, possibly dropping a quick 1 inch, that will affect metro areas during the evening commute.

The larger storm looks to arrive Sunday night and last most of Monday.

This report has the GFS Model update, which I have shown to be less reliable. However, now that we are within 4 days, we can use this for better contrast and signal before the full European Model update is in.

This has come back north to catch up AND now brings the ice or freezing rain into the conversation.

I have the odds for the confidence of the low end of 3 inches of snow… meaning there will be more for many. However, it is still just a little too soon to give a full range, given all the variables.

Thursday Afternoon Set Up

Low Pressure in Iowa is what I call the Mid-Atlantic Slider. This is like a clipper that tracks directly overhead (Maryland).

This may lay a blanket of snow to help hold the cold and may help establish a track for the next storm as well.

GFS Storm Animation

Thursday Afternoon to Tuesday Morning

This helps show the potential storm pattern and similar paths.

This is a large file that I posted on my Twitter Feed I hope will play for you here

2 SNOW EVENTS
⏩️GFS Thu PM to Tue AM
📍 Similar Tracks into Mid Atlantic
Central MD/Metro Baltimore
❄️ Fri Afternoon Burst = 1″
❄️ 🧊 Mon Moderate to Heavy Snow may mix w/ ice
👉 NOW in line w/ Euro; Trend NORTH bias still needs consideration for snow line#FITF#Snow… pic.twitter.com/Tn6FxtVK05

— Justin Berk (@JustinWeather) January 2, 2025

Friday Snow

1 PM to 7 PM Summary

A band of moderate snow is expected to track across Central Maryland just north of I-70.

Radar Simulation: NAM 3 Km Model

10 AM to Midnight

While the initial snow may melt, it will drop below freezing, leading to icy spots in the evening.

Snapshots

Note that the snow may be faster and arrive 1 to 2 hours earlier.

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

Snowfall Potential

A burst of 1 inch near and north of I-70.

JUMPING TO THE NEXT STORM

The European Model is still my top choice, but the GFS trend north and the introduction of an icy mix need to be considered. The GFS has a history of accurately catching this ahead of other models. So, let’s take a look at this solution.

Monday Morning

Plan for snow to enter the region closer to midnight and be cranking by daybreak.

There will be a band of wintry mix or freezing rain that will track near the Low-Pressure center. Tracking that will help make or break some snow totals.

Monday Afternoon

Freezing Rain tracking with the Low-Pressure is still a wild card.

Monday Evening

Colder air will settle in behind the storm and end up as snow for places that may have seen a mix during the day.

Snow Total Minimum ‘SUGGESTION’

Rather than giving a range or a high-end number that may fail to verify, I like to look at the Odds of a lower number and then go up from there.

Here is the Probability of 3 inches of snow on Monday.

KEEP IN MIND

Long Range Forecasting is better for trends and broader ideas…

Specifics like snow totals, ice, or a rain line are better handled within 72 hours.

There is a lot more data to sort through!

Tomorrow will have us in the 72-hour window, and I will get into the numbers game.

Arctic Outbreak For January

If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!

7 Day Forecast

Once the cold settles in, we may remain below freezing for a week or longer.

• Light snow Friday night…
• Chilly for Saturday, and the Ravens Game.
• Snow from Sunday night to Monday will impact much of the region.

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In Case You Missed It:

November 22 Snow Report

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF