Friday Snow Prompts Winter Weather Advisory And Storm Warning For Friday Snow

Thursday January 2 2025 – Evening Report

The first of two winter weather events in view will arrive Friday. This Mid-Atlantic Slider is similar to an Alberta Clipper, but tracks over Maryland and brings the snow burst farther south. In this case, the heavier snow in the mountains will track with impact into metro Baltimore and Philadelphia with a quick inch or two of snow.

Snow showers this afternoon were not related but just overflow of the Lake Effect streamers to our north.

Winter Weather Alerts

The Winter Weather Advisory is for the potential to get 1 to 2 inches of snow and affect road travel.  It has been expanded to include north Central Maryland to Northern Delaware, and around Philadelphia in Southeast Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey.

I expect there may be more southern PA Counties added, as seen on the weather maps below.

Winter Storm Warning for the high mountains where 6 to 10 inches of snow are expected.

Snow Arrival Time

I am basing this on a blend of the HRRR Model, NAM 3 Km Model, and NWS Assessment. However, the afternoon plots have shown this moving faster, so it could arrive earlier than shown here by 1 to 2 hours.

Thursday Afternoon Set Up

Low Pressure in Central Illinois has been moving faster than model forecasts today. This is what I call the Mid-Atlantic Slider. This is like a clipper that tracks directly overhead (Maryland).

This may lay a blanket of snow to help hold the cold and may help establish a track for the next storm as well.

GFS Storm Animation

Thursday Afternoon to Saturday Morning

Notice the pulse of moderate snow (dark blue) when crossing near Baltimore Friday afternoon.

Friday Snow

1 PM to 7 PM Summary

A band of moderate snow is expected to track across Central Maryland just north of I-70.

Radar Simulation: NAM 3 Km Model

It is important to note that these products have trouble with events like this. Use this as a guide, but it will not be gospel. The radar on Friday may show more than what is displayed here.

7 AM to Midnight

My analysis and model error lead me to think this may be too slow and could arrive 1 to 2 hours faster than shown here.

Snapshots

I estimated where the cyclonic flow will cross Maryland… Watch as the snow enhances as it crosses near Baltimore and around the Chesapeake Bay.

12 PM

2 PM

The surface Low may cross Baltimore and enhance the snow in the dynamic zone between the mountains and the Chesapeake Bay.

4 PM

The Surface Low may be just east of Baltimore as it enhances. The wrap around may flare up a burst of heavy snow briefly in metro areas.

Snowfall Potential

A burst of 1 inch near and north of I-70 may include:

JUMPING TO THE NEXT STORM

The European Model is still my top choice, but the GFS trend north and the introduction of an icy mix need to be considered.

Snow Odds For AT LEAST 3 Inches on Monday

ECMWF: Still higher, with an 80% chance for 3 inches or more in metro Baltimore.

KEEP IN MIND

Long Range Forecasting is better for trends and broader ideas…

Specifics like snow totals, ice, or a rain line are better handled within 72 hours.

There is a lot more data to sort through!

Tomorrow will have us in the 72-hour window, and I will get into the numbers game.

Arctic Outbreak For January

If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!

7 Day Forecast

Once the cold settles in, we may remain below freezing for a week or longer.

• Light snow Friday afternoon/night…
• Chilly on Saturday and for the Ravens Game.
• Snow from Sunday night to Monday will impact much of the region.

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