Thunderstorms New Years Eve May Turn Severe Then Warnings For Wind And Snow To Start January

Tuesday, December 31 New Year’s Evening

If you have plans to go out celebrating the New Year this evening, this weather event may affect you. A brief line of strong storms will have downpours and gusty winds that may contain lightning and pockets of large hail.

The storm system in the Ohio Valley is going to lead the charge for our big pattern change. It is developing a smaller circulation along the Triple Point, where the warm and cold fronts meet. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has posted a Marginal Risk for storms to turn severe. So, there could be thunder and wind gusts to 58 mph.

The winds from this storm on New Year’s Day will be colder and more sustained. That has prompted a Wind Advisory region-wide and a Winter Storm Warning for the high mountains.

Radar Snapshot at 4:30 PM

This line of storms in Virginia is moving Northeast and is already more impressive than the short-range forecast seen below.

Large Hail has been identified in the stronger cells.

This is moving to the North-Northeast at 25 to 40 mph.

New Year’s Eve Set Up

This storm is a wind machine. It is mostly rain but has enough energy to already produce severe thunderstorms along the new circulation.

This Meso-Low is expected to pass between Baltimore and New York this evening. We can see this in the radar simulation below.

Colder winds will wrap around behind this tomorrow.

Live Radar Widget

Compare to the forecast radar below.

Radar Simulation

HRRR Model: 4 PM to Midnight

Timeline Snapshots

The line may arrive up to 1 hour faster than shown here.

5 PM Radar

6 PM Radar

7 PM Radar

8 PM Radar

9 PM Radar

10 PM Radar

11 PM Radar

New Year’s Day Weather Alerts

Strong Winds behind the storm will produce damaging gusts and heavy Lake Effect Snow reaching the mountains.

Wind Advisory: Gusts to 50mph.

Winter Storm Warning: Snow 4 to 8 inches with higher amounts on the higher mountains.

Wind Forecast: 7 AM to Midnight

Afternoon: Peak Wind Gusts

Snow Radar 5 AM to Midnight

Snow Potential Through Thursday

Looking Ahead

Friday

The pattern supports more Lake-Effect Snow, and the upper air flow supports flurries to cross the mountains, even though they are not shown here. I am keeping that in our forecast.

NEXT WEEK STORM: First Snow

ECMWF Model

This model has modified to shift the storm south and bring us a modest snow event on Monday, with lingering snow showers into Tuesday.

I WILL NOT SHOW SNOW AMOUNTS… It is too soon and likely to change. Below is my post on FB yesterday about this same storm and time frame with a different result. We usually will zero in on a more valid track and timing within 5 days… which will be tomorrow’s forecast.

Forecast Animation: Sunday Afternoon to Tuesday Afternoon

Snapshot: Monday Afternoon

This is the latest SUGGESTION… with a track just south enough to try and keep this mostly snow in Central Maryland and Southern PA. I do expect some more adjusting of the timing and track… but plan for some impact on Monday.

Facebook Post

This was the 3 main model spread from yesterday. The GFS and European had a track farther North, and the Canadian model didn’t have the storm at all.

This is why I write ‘SUGGESTED’ on my maps.

Arctic Outbreak For January

If you missed it, here is my detailed report from last night about why this IS A BIG DEAL!

7 Day Forecast

The transition to seasonal cold arrives at the start of January.

Friday may bring flurries or snow showers.

I am leaning toward the First Snow for Monday, but I expect some variations in timing and track. So, I will not suggest any snow totals until we get within three days.

This is just the beginning of at least 3 weeks of solid winter weather.

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