December 31 2024
Tuesday Morning Report
This last day of the year will start with sunshine and mild temperatures. The winds will crank up ahead of a weather system that will bring moderate to heavy rain showers this evening. Those clouds will arrive before sunset, and the rain may end before midnight.
Colder air starts to arrive on New Year’s Day, with heavy snow in the high mountains and colder winds that may gust to 45 mph tomorrow.
There has been a persistent winter event showing up on the models for Monday and I am leaning in with the ‘first snow’ reaching Central Maryland, with moderate accumulation for the surrounding region.
HOWEVER, the tracking maps are already different than yesterday (I will compare below), and I expect they will still change, so it is too early to say how much. Just plan for some impact next Monday.
We are continuing the discussion about this Arctic Outbreak because it will be the most robust winter pattern we have seen in decades. The chance for cold and winter storms will last most of the month.
Let’s take a look.
Sunrise at 7:26 AM
Sunset at 4:54 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 27ºF
Record -1ºF in 1880
Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF
Record 72ºF 1992
Baltimore Drought Update
A potent storm is spinning through the MidWest. This is what will crank up our wind today AND bring in late showers. The colder air behind it will open up the Lake Effect Snow for the high mountains and begin our cool-down on New Year’s Day.
The band of showers may be heavy but only last a few hours in metro areas. You might even hear some thunder.
Rain in the mountains…. moving East.
Growing winds FROM the Southeast will gust up to 30 mph ahead of the little storm.
Thunder is possible with the pocket of heavy rain.
The rain should move north… New York City may be getting drenched, AND the high mountains of Garrett County will be changing over to snow.
This will be a windy and colder day, with moderate snow in the high mountains.
Snow will fall all day in the high mountains.
Winds will gust to 45 mph!
The leading edge of the cooler air… Much colder air will be on the way into the weekend.
The pattern supports more Lake-Effect Snow, and the upper air flow supports flurries to cross the mountains, even though they are not shown here. I am keeping that in our forecast.
This model has modified to shift the storm south and bring us a modest snow event on Monday, with lingering snow showers into Tuesday.
I WILL NOT SHOW SNOW AMOUNTS… It is too soon and likely to change. Below is my post on FB yesterday about this same storm and time frame with a different result. We usually will zero in on a more valid track and timing within 5 days… which will be tomorrow’s forecast.
This is the latest SUGGESTION… with a track just south enough to try and keep this mostly snow in Central Maryland and Southern PA. I do expect some more adjusting of the timing and track… but plan for impact this day.
This was the 3 main model spread from yesterday. The GFS and European had a track farther North and the Canadian model didn’t have the storm at all.
This is why I write ‘SUGGESTED’ on maps.
If you missed it, here is my detailed report last night about why this IS A BIG DEAL!
The transition to seasonal cold arrives at the start of January.
Friday may bring flurries or snow showers.
I am leaning toward the First Snow for Monday, but I expect some variations in timing and track. So, I will not suggest any snow totals until we get within three days.
This is just the beginning of at least 3 weeks of solid winter weather.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
