December 30 Still Mild With New Years Eve Rain Then True Cold Begins By The Weekend

December 30, 2024

Monday Morning Report

This weekend brought 0.81 inches of rain for Baltimore, which was below the expectations of at least one full inch. The temperature reached 65F as it peaked Sunday. While it will remain warm for two more days, temps will be lower.

The next rain event will be New Year’s Eve, followed by the start of the colder air. The latest model guidance brings in light snow or snow showers on Friday. Then, we will progressively get into the much colder Arctic pattern for the first few weeks of January.

The continued discussion about this Arctic Outbreak is because it will be the most robust winter pattern we have seen in decades. The chance for cold and winter storms will last most of the month.

Let’s take a look.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY December 30

Sunrise at 7:26 AM

Sunset at 4:53 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  27ºF

Record -3ºF in 1880

Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF

Record 68ºF 1990

Baltimore Drought Update

Sunday Rain = 0.18”

7.54 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since September 1st

8.02 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since January 1st

Local Morning Temperatures

Morning Surface Weather

The system from the weekend has moved away, and we are in the lull before the next and final event in this warm pattern.

Temperatures stay mild. Morning fog and clouds will give way to afternoon sunshine, warming things up.

The storm in the Central US is what will bring us rain tomorrow evening and be followed by the new weather pattern.

Wind Forecast: 7 AM to Midnight

Noon Wind Forecast: Gusts to 25 mph

Afternoon High Temperatures

TUESDAY DECEMBER 31

Tuesday will start off dry and sunny. Then clouds will bring rain by mid afternoon and evening. This may last only a few hours and race away before midnight.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

New Year Celebration:

Radar Simulation From Noon to Midnight

ECMWF Model

Rain is expected Tuesday evening and may end locally before midnight…. In New York and New England, rain will remain likely throughout the celebration. Colder winds will follow for New Year’s Day.

Snapshot New Year’s Eve

Snapshot: New Year’s Night

New Year’s Day

Colder winds begin the transition back to seasonal cold. Lake Effect Snow will reach the mountains of far Western Maryland.

Looking Ahead

Jet Stream: January 1 to January 8

The multiple impulses of cold air get progressively colder.

This may also translate to developing a surface storm with snow and ice.

SUGGESTION: January 6 Winter Storm

I am showing this now because it is one week from today, and it is worth starting to track the trends in the modeling. This is the GFS Model showing the snow and ice arriving from the Midwest.  The ECMWF Model is similar…

I will continue to track and compare this daily for any trends.

Arctic Pattern

Yesterday I followed up with an additional look outbreak expected in January and how this could result in both extreme cold AND multiple snow events.

Here are the links to my posts on Facebook and X.

Facebook Post

X Post

Arctic Outbreak and Snow Chances: Wide Window for first 3 Weeks Of January!
🧵 1 of 2
🥶 ‼️ The cold is coming and will get COLDER.

🌀 The storm pattern is likely to “turn favorable” for Nor’Easters = Miller A Storms. It’s not a promise but is very possible. The models are… pic.twitter.com/su6LgQfcUz

— Justin Berk (@JustinWeather) December 29, 2024

7 Day Forecast

• Two warm days and rain on New Year’s Eve.
• The transition to seasonal cold arrives at the start of January.
• Friday may bring flurries or snow showers.
• The start of very cold air is just beginning this weekend.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF