December 28 Weekend Rain May Include Thunder With Tornado Outbreak In The Deep South

December 28,  2024

Saturday Morning Report

Here is our wet weekend. The good news is that we improved our air quality from the pollution haze yesterday, but we traded it off with rain and fog. Within this soggy weather pattern, we will have some dry hours this weekend as a second storm organizes. That will surge temperatures on Sunday and bring in heavier rain, with thunder possible Sunday night.

Looking at the week ahead, another storm will bring rain on New Year’s Eve, followed by just the start of what I expected to be a very cold pattern in January.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY December 28

Sunrise at 7:25 AM

Sunset at 4:52 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  27ºF

Record 10ºF in 1950; 2017

Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF

Record 74ºF 1946

Baltimore Drought Update

• 8.13 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since September 1st
• 8.61 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since January 1st

Morning Surface Weather

The line of rain that moved through overnight is shifting east and fading to showers. Later, it will pulse again with more rain.

SEVERE STORM RISK: A Tornado Outbreak and Large Hail Storms across central Louisiana and Mississippi. This outlook is Level 4 of 5, so don’t be deceived by the ‘Moderate Risk’ category.

This will signal energy feeding into the Second Storm… which will swing our way later on Sunday.

Live Radar Widget

Radar Simulation 8 AM to Midnight

There is a deformation line that will pulse with more showers and steadier rain later today and tonight.

Afternoon Snapshot

Afternoon Temperatures

Tonight

SUNDAY DECEMBER 29

There may be scattered showers in the morning, but the bulk of the rain will arrive in the afternoon through the night.

Thunderstorms are possible, but the severe risk should remain to our south, maybe clipping parts of Virginia.

Morning Temperatures

Morning Radar

Afternoon Temperatures

Afternoon Radar Simulation

Radar Forecast Animation: 2 PM to Midnight

Midnight Snapshot

This product can often be an hour slow… but we can plan for a squall line with downpours and maybe thunder overnight.

Rainfall Total Potential Through Monday Morning

Looking Ahead

Storm Animation: Tuesday Morning To Thursday Morning

This is the start of the pattern change. It will come with rain on New Year’s Eve.

Snapshot New Year’s Eve

Snapshot: Thursday

The leading edge of the colder air will begin to flow in.

Jet Stream: Tuesday To Friday

This is just the start of the pattern change. A deeper supply of arctic air is expected to follow after this.

Friday January 3

Colder air in place and setting us up for more to follow.

7 Day Forecast

A distinct shift from warmer and wet to colder air. The chance for thunder on Sunday night may be worth paying attention to… Winter Weather Folklore suggests that snow may follow within one week.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF