December 23 Winter Weather Advisory For Christmas Eve Morning Ice

December 23, 2024

Monday Morning Report

This morning is as cold or even colder than yesterday morning, which will be felt by the people who still have regular work. It is a signal that the atmosphere has been sufficiently refrigerated with the snow to the north AND radiational cooling under a clear and calm night.

This sets us up ahead of the next weak clipper, which will arrive tomorrow morning. Christmas Eve travel may be hindered by morning light snow or freezing rain. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued, which I will detail below.

Christmas looks cold and dry, then more light snow on Thursday.

Looking ahead, there is disagreement in the computer modeling about the end-of-year warm-up and then the BIG COOL DOWN to start 2025.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY December 23

Sunrise at 7:24 AM

Sunset at 4:49 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  28ºF

Record 0ºF in 1960

Normal High in Baltimore: 46ºF

Record 69ºF 1990

Baltimore Drought Update

• 7.58 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since September 1st
• 8.06 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since January 1st

Local Morning Temperatures

The TEENS have pushed deeper into Central and Southern Maryland/Delmarva.

Single Digits into Southern PA.

Eastern US Temperatures

The cold air across the Eastern US with below zero temps in Northern New England.

A sign of warming across the Central US.

Morning Surface Weather

Afternoon Temperatures

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24: CHRISTMAS EVE

Winter Weather Advisory

This will begin close to sunrise in Central Maryland and end close to noon. It will be mostly light ice with sleet and freezing rain. There will be light snow in the mountains…

Southern Pennsylvania has not been included but can expect up to 1 inch of snow.

Radar Simulation 5 AM to Noon

Snow, sleet, and freezing rain will arrive around sunrise and last 2 to 4 hours at most.

Morning Temperatures

7 AM Radar Snapshot

9 AM Radar Snapshot

Afternoon Temperatures

Christmas Day

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

HOLIDAY SNEAK PEAK: ECMWF Model

Tuesday to Thursday Afternoon

After the first clipper cold front, a dry Christmas, then another push of light snow on Thursday.

Thursday Light Snow

Looking Ahead to 2025

I still believe we will get very cold air, and I am not promoting the big storm that was splashed all over social media yesterday.

THIS IS WHY I DO NOT TRUST ANY WINTER STORM PLOT MORE THAN ONE WEEK AWAY….

Even the European Model has its errors. Just 12 hours apart, the model flipped and lost the monster storm it showed for early January.

Jet Stream:

The European model has the deep push of cold air. The GFS Model has us warm and delays the cold air another few days.

7 Day Forecast

The cold is expected to hold for the start of next week, and then it will return to seasonal averages after Christmas.

There will be a surge of warmer temperatures during the last week of the year.. with the change around New Year’s to the pattern described above.

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In Case You Missed This

The Faith In The Flakes Dec 5 Origin Story

In Case You Missed It:

November 22 Snow Report

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF