December 15, 2024
Sunday Morning Report
That very strong High Pressure had developed a deeper layer of cold air. This will be tough to move out AND will result in more snow than expected. This burst will affect mainly areas between Fredrick and Frostburg. The higher mountains will actually turn to freezing rain.
This deep layer of cold air may allow for the initial precipitation to bring light snow to Frederick, Westminster, and York, PA. A coating to 1 inch of snow is possible… mostly on the grass, as temps will be warming just above freezing.
A chilly rain for metro areas this afternoon and tonight.
Then we warm with more periods of rain through Wednesday.
The week will end with a dramatic cooldown and perhaps some flurries with the colder winds next weekend.
Winter Weather Advisory: Slushy Snow, up to 4 inches of snow, and some freezing rain.
Winter Storm Warning: Lighter Snow, more freezing rain/icing up to 1/4 inch.
This is the High-Resolution Refresh Model I trust today more than the NAM 3 km.
Timeline Snapshots Detailed Below…
The cold air is capped by the advancing clouds and may hold for longer.
See the model snow maps below.
The problems are more likely west of I-70 and along I-81.
The developing storm is bumping into this deep layer of cold air. Snow and, eventually, freezing rain will result in the mountains. What we will see is detailed below.
A chilly rain is expected around Baltimore up through Philadelphia and Metro New York (for the end of the Ravens Game later).
Sunday Morning to Tuesday Morning
The first wave of snow and ice will trend to rain for most areas.. then a second push of rain with warmer air Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Temperatures
Radar Simulation
Radar Simulation: Turning to rain with snow along I-81 North of Harrisburg to The Poconos.
Very reasonable.
Similar to the HRRR Model
Once again this seems overdone.
Sunrise at 7:19 AM
Sunset at 4:45 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 30ºF
Record 9ºF in 1960; 1962
Normal High in Baltimore: 48ºF
Record 70ºF 1929; 1971
Due to all the details for today’s event, I want to simplify the work week with these brief graphics.
A series of impulses or Low-Pressure Systems will ride with warmer air and bring more rain from Monday night to Tuesday morning, then Wednesday afternoon until Thursday morning.
Warming with the rain, then the upper-level flow brings much colder air next weekend into the start of Christmas Week.
There will be a big swing with periods of rain as we warm to the 50s and near 60. The final storm will shift the flow aloft and bring in colder air. I see one more system that could bring a light mix and then flurries to end the week. Much colder air will follow the day after this.
Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring
Winter Weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November To March
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