November 21, 2024

Thursday Morning Report

The squall line last night validated and even overachieved expectations. Winds gusted over 50 mph in many areas AND much needed rainfall added up to 0.94” in Baltimore through midnight. More was added afterward.

Colder air and a large upper-level trough will settle in Pennsylvania on Friday. This will bring in a taste of winter. The expectations for snow have now expanded to Central Maryland, and yes, it might be cold enough for some stickage on grassy areas.

A Winter Storm Warning is in place for the high mountains of far Western Maryland and West Virginia. Snow is still expected to reach 1-foot accumulation along with 50 mph winds.

Let’s take a look……

Morning Surface Weather

Storm 1, which brought us rain and wind, is moving away and sending much-needed rain to the drought areas of Metro New York and New England.

Storm 2 is the main event that will pivot from the Great Lakes and nearly stall in Pennsylvania on Friday. This will include a strong upper-level source of cold air and instability. Snow will spread our way and enhance over the Appalachian mountains.

Weather Preview

Storm Animation Today through Saturday Night

Watch the main storm spin in PA and pivot the next wave of energy that will enhance the snow on Friday, then pull away this weekend.

Jet Stream Friday Morning

The core of the cold air will be over our region. There is a trough swinging through the Southeast US with enough enhanced energy to develop snow.

Snow and Rain Mix Friday

Notice the blue shading (snow) into metro Baltimore. A closer look is below.

TODAY

Wind Forecast 7 AM to 7 PM

Wind Gusts at Noon

The stronger winds will be moving east, so it will be less windy this afternoon.

Radar Simulation: Noon to Midnight

There will be some showers with rain and maybe flakes after dark.

Heavy snow will get going in the mountains.

Afternoon Temperatures

Radar Simulation Tonight

7 PM Wed to 7 AM Thu

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 21

Sunrise at 6:57 AM

Sunset at 4:48 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  35ºF

Record 16ºF in 1951

Normal High in Baltimore: 55ºF

Record 79ºF 1900

Baltimore Drought Update

• 0.94” of rain fell Thursday… The updated deficit:
• 6.66 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since September 1st
• 7.12 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since January 1st
• THE BURN BAN REMAINS IN PLACE

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 22

Turning colder with developing snow from the North, and it will reach the northern suburbs during the morning.

Snow will mix with rain near and south of Baltimore.

Heavy snow will be raging in the mountains.

Morning Temperatures

Morning Radar Simulation

Radar Forecast 7 AM to Midnight

Winds At Noon

Afternoon Radar

Afternoon Temperatures

WINTER STORM WARNING

This includes Garrett County, MD, and the high mountains of PA and WV.

Snow 6 to 12+ inches with wind gusts to 50 mph.

Note this is over the extreme drought region and is much needed.

Snow Roads Profile

Snow Forecast Models

There is a lot of agreement between the GFS and ECMWF.

Yes, I see a dusting or more on the grassy areas north of Baltimore.

GFS

ECMWF

NAM 3Km

In Case You Missed It

My Winter Outlook Report

7 Day Forecast

• Colder air will continue to spill in through Saturday.
• Some rain showers later today with a mix of flakes.
• Heavy snow develops in the mountains.
• Snow and mixed showers will expand into Central Maryland on Friday.
• Briefly mild early next week. Then, rain on Wednesday may set up a colder Thanksgiving storm.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF