November 21, 2024
Thursday Morning Report
The squall line last night validated and even overachieved expectations. Winds gusted over 50 mph in many areas AND much needed rainfall added up to 0.94” in Baltimore through midnight. More was added afterward.
Colder air and a large upper-level trough will settle in Pennsylvania on Friday. This will bring in a taste of winter. The expectations for snow have now expanded to Central Maryland, and yes, it might be cold enough for some stickage on grassy areas.
A Winter Storm Warning is in place for the high mountains of far Western Maryland and West Virginia. Snow is still expected to reach 1-foot accumulation along with 50 mph winds.
Let’s take a look……
Storm 1, which brought us rain and wind, is moving away and sending much-needed rain to the drought areas of Metro New York and New England.
Storm 2 is the main event that will pivot from the Great Lakes and nearly stall in Pennsylvania on Friday. This will include a strong upper-level source of cold air and instability. Snow will spread our way and enhance over the Appalachian mountains.
Watch the main storm spin in PA and pivot the next wave of energy that will enhance the snow on Friday, then pull away this weekend.
The core of the cold air will be over our region. There is a trough swinging through the Southeast US with enough enhanced energy to develop snow.
Notice the blue shading (snow) into metro Baltimore. A closer look is below.
The stronger winds will be moving east, so it will be less windy this afternoon.
There will be some showers with rain and maybe flakes after dark.
Heavy snow will get going in the mountains.
7 PM Wed to 7 AM Thu
Sunrise at 6:57 AM
Sunset at 4:48 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 35ºF
Record 16ºF in 1951
Normal High in Baltimore: 55ºF
Record 79ºF 1900
Turning colder with developing snow from the North, and it will reach the northern suburbs during the morning.
Snow will mix with rain near and south of Baltimore.
Heavy snow will be raging in the mountains.
This includes Garrett County, MD, and the high mountains of PA and WV.
Snow 6 to 12+ inches with wind gusts to 50 mph.
Note this is over the extreme drought region and is much needed.
There is a lot of agreement between the GFS and ECMWF.
Yes, I see a dusting or more on the grassy areas north of Baltimore.
Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring
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