Thursday November 21
Evening Report
We definitely have had a abrupt pattern flip, and one that was hard to image with 60s just a couple of days ago. What is developing is an early winter weather set up that has already brought accumulating snow to the high mountains and a few flakes into the inland suburbs.
This weather pattern appears to line up to maximize the cold air and bring snow into metro Baltimore Friday. Temperatures will remain above freezing, so the roads will stay wet. But the very start could leave a coating to one inch on the grass and maybe some other stickage for the normally colder suburbs North and West.
Thursday to Saturday Morning
NOTE: The mountains are 3,000+ and 4,000+ peaks
I have a full weather report below. First I want to start with my experience this afternoon.
The impact on the roads and accumulation with the colder higher elevations.
I put that truck where I am riding out the storm.
I am in McHenry MD to report on the snow around Deep Creek Lake.
I’ve been sharing this on my social media channels.
Here was my first snow squall AND the Timelapse video: 1 Hour compressed in to 32 seconds
Reporting From Snow Zone Of Western Maryland
The storm that produce the heavy rain and thunder in the squall line last night has pushed that much needed rain to metro New York and New England.
A second Low Pressure is located in Northern Indiana the has colder air and snow extending ahead into Kentucky and the mountains of West Virginia and Maryland.
These are both pivoting around a larger Upper Level Low. This is the jet stream trough that is deepening and may briefly close off Friday. With this, we maximize the cold air.
Located around 18,000 Ft above the ground. The blue and green colors represent the coldest of the air at that level. I’ve highlighted the Surface Lows that will be pivoting around the cold core.
This is the spin within the jet stream and helps show spokes of energy that will pivot around and help the surface wether systems strengthen.
Thursday Night to Saturday Night
Here we can better see the surface Lows behave with the pivot and enhancing the snow. A closer look at how that will develop in metro areas is below.
NOTE: Often the snow or rain can arrive a little faster than this product shows. Perhaps up to 1 hour earlier.
A solid line of snow underneath the Jet Stream Trough will slide southward and push into central Maryland after sunrise.
This will run into the warmer air around I-95 and The Chesapeake Bay to mix with rain. Inland may also see snow around Metro Washington DC.
The peak will be mid day and early afternoon, the diminish at night.
The heavy snow will persist in the Winter Storm Warning Mountain Zone of Maryland and West Virginia mountains.
Snow may reach near York, Lancaster, and Harrisburg close to sunrise. This area may have spots that get an early costing of snow.
There maybe a large inland area below freezing. This may play a role with some initial stickage on grassy areas across Southern PA and Northern Maryland between 7 AM and 10 AM. Most roads should be OK, but a heavy snow burst could lead to brief stickage and traffic slow down.
Snow appears to push into Baltimore and around I-70. Snow and then a mix with rain will continue to expand southward.
With temperatures in the mid to upper 30s and mid day sun angle, the roads should be OK…
Moderate snow may fall down through I-95 around Baltimore and even Washington. This would be a heavy wet snow… not sticking.
The heavy snow and accumulation will continue in the high mountains.
The snow an rain will break up to showers in the event and fade at night.
Steady snow will continue in the high mountains….
Most areas will remain above freezing.
Warmer air may sneak into some mountain areas as well.
Coating to 1 inch on the grass: Suburbs of Baltimore inland to the West and North
The snow totals around McHenry and the high mountains has remained consistent… Holding now 12″ to 15″ for McHenry and Wisp. Up to 18″ between Canaan Valley and Snowshoe.
Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring
Winter Weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November To March
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One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
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