November 20, 2024

Wednesday Morning Report

The mention of a Pattern Change will live up to expectations for sure. Tonight, a line of rain will include a squall line with heavy downpours and gusty winds.

The colder air that follows will come in two waves and be wrapped around a larger upper-level storm that will nearly stall to our north. This will help drag down colder air and push snow showers into Central Maryland on Thursday and Friday. The latest data supports a dusting or more coating of the ground for the colder suburbs.

The Winter Storm Watch for the high mountains of far Western Maryland and West Virginia may be upgraded to a warning soon. Snow accumulations of 1 foot are still expected, along with 50 mph winds.

Let’s take a look…..

Morning Surface Weather

This complex weather map can be simplified with this:

It will get stormy and colder with snow on the way!

The cold front on the way tonight will expand the line of rain. There will be heavy downpours overnight with possible lightning and gusty winds.

The snow in the Northern Plains is heading our way. There will be snow with the surge of colder air over the next few days.

Afternoon Temperatures

One last warm day!

Radar Simulation Tonight

7 PM Wed to 7 AM Thu

10 PM Snapshot

This is the cold front, with a squall line of heavy rain and gusty winds. The front could produce a flash or two of lightning.

10 PM Winds

Gusts to 30 mph or higher.

1 AM Snapshot

The final burst of rain with the initial storm…

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 20

Sunrise at 6:56 AM

Sunset at 4:48 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  36ºF

Record 22ºF in 1951; 2022

Normal High in Baltimore: 56ºF

Record 79ºF 1942

Baltimore Drought Update

7.50 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since September 1st

7.96 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since January 1st

THE BURN BAN REMAINS IN PLACE

Map Updated Thursday, November 14

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 21

Windy and colder. There may be snow showers in the suburbs while heavy snow begins in the mountains.

Morning Temperatures

Wind Afternoon

Colder winds will gust to 30 mph with the colder air.

Afternoon Temperatures

Winter Radar 11 AM Thu to 7 AM Fri

Snow showers will reach the metro suburbs Thursday afternoon, then evening, and shift North.

Heavy snow will develop in the mountains, then expand on Friday, with more on the way into Central Maryland.

Radar Snapshots

Noon

5 PM

Wider View: Storm Forecast Wednesday to Saturday

 Snapshot Friday Afternoon 

Heavy snow in the mountains will continue.

Snow may be steady for a few hours into Northern Maryland and Central Pennsylvania.

Snow showers will reach into metro Baltimore.

Precipitation Total (rain and melted snow)

Snow Forecast ‘SUGGESTION’ Model Map

This is using the Kuchera technique:

One foot of snow in the high mountains, with an increased chance for a dusting or more north and west of Baltimore.

GFS Model

WINTER STORM WATCH

This includes Garrett County, MD, and the high mountains in West Virginia.

Snow 6 to 12+ inches with wind gusts to 50 mph.

Note this is over an extreme drought region and is much needed.

7 Day Forecast

An abrupt change with cold winds for a few days! While heavy snow dumps on the mountains, we will get snow showers in the inland suburbs on Thursday, and then snow may expand over more of Central Maryland on Friday.

The weekend will be mild, then briefly sunny next week, leading into a Thanksgiving storm.

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Faith in the Flakes Gear

Also See

Record Low PDO Observed in October: How This May Influence Snow This Winter

La Nina Watch Update: November 2024

FOUR SUPERMOONS OF 2024

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF