Monday Night Report

The high mountains of western Maryland and West Virginia are expecting the region’s first snow this week. This may not directly affect you, but there is a reason you might hear or read a lot about it. It goes beyond the knock of hype or clickbait.

• This is the first snow of the season within driving distance
• We just had 38 dry days in a row and are in a major drought
• We just had the hottest Fall on record
• The setup is a pattern change
• Finally, the atmosphere is set up for some snow showers or flurries to reach Central Maryland.  Some models have a chance for a dusting in the colder suburbs… but that is for entertainment at this time.

Winter Storm Watch

Thursday to Saturday

NOTE: The mountains are 3,000+ and 4,000+ peaks

• Snow between 6 to 12 inches, with higher amounts possible
• Winds may gust to 50 mph

Reminder: Drought Monitor

The Set Up:

Rain will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday, and behind the cold front, a strong upper-level Low will nearly stall over Central New York and drag down unseasonably cold air through the weekend.

Jet Stream: 500mb Height Anomaly

Wednesday Night to Sunday Night

This is around 18,000 feet above the ground. The blue and green colors represent the coldest air at that level.

VORTICITY

This is a measure of the ‘spin’ aloft. By tracking larger and smaller vortices, we can better understand the energy in the atmosphere that can help ‘pull up the air’. This rising enhances clouds and the development of rain or snow.

Jet Stream: 500mb Vorticity

Wednesday Night to Sunday Night

Snapshot Friday Morning

I’ve highlighted the Upper-Level Low in Central New York. This is the source of instability, and it will be pulling down unseasonably cold air from the Northwest.

The COLD WINDS over The Great Lakes will start The Lake Effect Snow machine. This will be enhanced by the mountains.

Often, the air flowing down the other side to lower elevations is warm and dry, which is why the snow often does not reach east of them…

The trough I’ve marked with the purple line is the upper-level energy that may provide enough for snow and rain showers to survive into Central Maryland.

Surface Animation: Snow and Rain

Wednesday Afternoon to Saturday Afternoon

The darker blue is where the snow will develop and it will burst for long stretches in the mountains through the period. It may be heaviest on Friday.

NOTES

• Yes, there may be a mix of snow and rain showers, even around metro Baltimore while temperatures are above freezing.
• There is little chance if the snow falls, it will stick… unless heavier bursts help it lay and stay on the grass…..
• There is a better chance farther west and north in the higher elevations.
• In the region under a Winter Storm Watch, temperatures will be cold enough (above 2,000 feet) for accumulation.

Snapshot: Friday Afternoon

This close-up shows the rain (green) and snow (blue) showers reaching into Central Maryland.

This is a setup for a burst for ‘stuff’ to fall. It does not state if it will stick.

Temperatures Friday Afternoon

This is a suggestion… and even with 30s in the colder suburbs… it will be above freezing.

The below freezing temps and accumulation will be confined to those higher elevations in the Winter Storm Watch Zone.

Snow Total “Suggestion” Model Maps

Note that these models show what may fall, but some of that could melt or compact. There is a hint of a dusting in the northern suburbs of Baltimore. Again, any snow likely to fall could melt or only stick on the grass…

GFS Model

ECWMF Model

National Blend of Models

If you are a snow lover like me, you are a little excited and have a lot of Faith in the Flakes for more in the season ahead.

I’ll keep tracking this, and I may be traveling out there to report live.

FITF

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF