November 18 Weather After Mild Start The Week Will End With Colder Rain And Some Snow

November 18, 2024

Monday Morning Report

We remain dry, and the burn ban continues. I actually saw a few bonfires over the weekend, and the word needs to spread….

We do have rain in our forecast, but not until late Wednesday night. Until then, we have a mild and dry start to the week. What we have seen in the sky has been a tease. The high cirrus clouds are made of ice crystals that refract the incoming light.

They produce a solar halo during the day and a lunar halo at night. This is usually a signal of a storm arriving with rain or snow within the next 24 to 48 hours. There may be sprinkles on Tuesday, but the rain is more likely to hold off another day.

Solar Halo

This was from Deep Creek Lake in Maryland on Sunday.

Lunar Halo Sunday Night

Morning Surface Weather

We still have a ‘Dirty High’ in place. This keeps us dry, but there have been high, thin cirrus clouds filtered in that will continue to make for a milky white sky. There may also be another solar halo and sun dogs in the sky.

The next storm system has produced severe weather from Oklahoma to Texas. This is part of the pattern change on the way.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Nearly seasonal expectations.

Baltimore Drought Update

• 7.00 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since September 1st
• 7.66 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since January 1st

THE BURN BAN REMAINS IN PLACE

Map Updated Thursday, November 14

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 18

Sunrise at 6:54 AM

Sunset at 4:50 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  36ºF

Record 20ºF in 1959

Normal High in Baltimore: 56ºF

Record 78ºF 1928; 1938

TUESDAY NOVEMBER 19

FORECAST Tuesday To Wednesday

This initial line of rain may appear to dissipate across the mountains. It will bring a surge of warmer temps on Wednesday ahead of the next surge of rain.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

EXTENDED FORECAST

Wednesday Afternoon to Saturday Evening

This round of rain will have more support AND then be followed by the cold pattern change for the end of the week.

Snapshot Wednesday Night

Heavy rain will arrive overnight for a few hours.

Snapshot Thursday Afternoon

The steady rain will be over New England (where they desperately need it). The wrap-around cold air will ignite the first Lake Effect Snow event, which will include accumulating snow in Western Maryland and West Virginia.

Snapshot Friday

Friday will ‘feel’ like winter with a cold wind and plenty of clouds moving in FROM the Northwest.

The unsettled environment may produce showers with snowflakes mixing across the colder inland suburbs. It is not likely to stick… but snow will continue to accumulate in the higher mountains, where 6 inches or more may fall across Garrett County, MD.

Jet Stream: Wednesday, Nov 20 to Thanksgiving, Nov 28

The pattern change we’ve been advertising will bring cold air to end this week and the weekend. It is not a lock for the season, but the first signal of what’s to come.

It will followed by a warm-up next week into Thanksgiving.

Snapshot Friday

The core of the cold air will pass through the East Coast. This is starting to look like a winter pattern.

Snapshot Thanksgiving

At this point, it appears to be a mild holiday. There will be more cold air to follow.

7 Day Forecast

We do have one warm day this week, near 70ºF, just before the next rain on Wednesday that night. Then the pattern changes with mountain snow and perhaps some snow flakes mixed in with showers into central Maryland on Thursday and Friday.

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Also See

La Nina Watch Update: November 2024

FOUR SUPERMOONS OF 2024

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF