November 14 Rain Forecast Today And New Tropical Storm Sara Expected To Get Named

November 14, 2024

Thursday Morning Report

Today will bring our second rain event in less than a week, following 39 dry days in a row. This rain is welcome but I need to point out that it will NOT end our drought and likely not end the burn ban. This will be a slow process to get back to normal.

A very chilly start will be capped by the thickening clouds and rain arriving in metro areas this afternoon. Many areas may remain in the 40s to near 50ºF.

Live radar, timeline, and forecast totals are below.

Also, a new tropical storm may be named Sara today. We will track it across Mexico and towards Florida next week.

Temperatures at 6 AM

Very chilly start to the day.

Morning Surface Weather

The main storm system has a healthy line of rain crossing the mountains and heading east.

A meso-low Pressure in the panhandle of Florida will enhance the rainfall as it tracks northward toward Virginia.

Live Radar Widget

The current timeline will be updated here. The evening and forecast maps are below.

Radar Simulation Forecast Noon to Midnight

Afternoon Snapshot

Rainfall will arrive in metro areas between 2 PM and 4 PM.

Afternoon Temperatures

The core of the cool air will settle in despite the sunshine.

Evening Snapshot

Tonight

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 14

Sunrise at 6:48 AM

Sunset at 4:53 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  37ºF

Record 18ºF in 1986

Normal High in Baltimore: 58ºF

Record 77ºF 1989

Baltimore Drought Update

• Rainfall DOWN -7.03” since Sep 1
• The growing drought continues to be a problem despite the recent rain breaking our 39-day dry streak.

Baltimore’s rainfall deficit is currently

• 7.03 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since September 1st
• 7.49 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since January 1st

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 15

Radar Simulation:

NAM 3 Km Midnight to Noon

Snapshot Friday Morning

Rainfall Potential

Heavier rain will be South with much less to the East and Northeast.

Central areas should get between 1/4 and 1/2 inch.

Over 1 inch across the mountains of West Virginia to Southern Virginia.

Temperatures

Friday Morning

Friday Afternoon

Tropical Weather

Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is expected to be upgraded and named Tropical Storm Sara today when winds are 40 mph or higher, and a better-organized central low pressure is identified.

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

The track across Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula will limit the growth potential. This will then cross back over the water and curve towards Florida. However, the time it spends over land will likely hold the growth in check.

There is a chance some of that rain may work up the East Coast eventually.

Computer Model Forecast Intensity

At this point, I do not see it becoming a major hurricane. That is why I held off on that call despite what earlier models had shown. It is more likely to be a Category 1. However, storms have overperformed, so there is room for a Category 2 before final landfall.

7 Day Forecast

After the rain, the weekend will be sunny. However, Saturday might have strong winds limiting the comfort. Sunday will be better.

Next week will remain mild. There is a pattern change expected later in the week, and it may be worth seeing how ‘Sara’ behaves.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF