November 13 Weather Chilly Day and Needed Rain On The Way Tomorrow Plus New Tropical Storm Expected

November 13, 2024

Wednesday Morning Report

We have a cold start to a chilly day that will once again bring us sunshine and dry weather. We are desperately in need of rain, and another round is on the way. This may bring us between 1/2 and 1 inch to much of the region later tomorrow.

The other story is the continuing tropical season. A new storm is expected to develop in the Caribbean by this weekend. Currently identified Invest 99L, the next tropical storm name is Sara. It is forecast to become a hurricane and could hit Florida next week. Some of that moisture might benefit us later on as well.

Temperatures at 6 AM

Very chilly start to the day.

Morning Surface Weather

High Pressure is in control with a clear sky and light wind. The core of the chilly air is settling in.

The next storm system is developing in the Central Plains and will arrive in the Eastern US tomorrow.

Afternoon Temperatures

The core of the cool air will settle in despite the sunshine.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 13

Sunrise at 6:48 AM

Sunset at 4:53 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  37ºF

Record 22ºF in 1911; 2019

Normal High in Baltimore: 59ºF

Record 77ºF 1955

Baltimore Drought Update

Rainfall DOWN -6.94” since Sep 1

This nearly matches our deficit from right before our recent rainfall.

Yes, we can dry out quickly and the State-Wide Burn bans remain in place.

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 14

CHILLY DAY: Increasing clouds with rain arriving in metro areas in the afternoon.

Morning Lows

Afternoon Highs

RAIN FORECAST

Storm Forecast Thursday Morning To Friday Evening

Radar Simulation:

NAM 3 Km 9 AM THU to 7 AM FRI

Snapshots

Thursday Morning

The early arrival over the mountains may lead to a start as sleet at over 2,000 Ft in elevation.

Thursday Afternoon

Rain will arrive in metro areas during the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Steady, moderate rain will last overnight.

Friday Morning

The day may begin with moderate to heavy rain in Southern Maryland and Southeast VA… but ending elsewhere in our region. The day will remain partly sunny with variable clouds.

Rainfall Potential

Moderate to heavy rain will fall over the mountains. The track of Low Pressure through Virginia will bring heavier rain to the south, with less to the north into Central Pennsylvania.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

The National Hurricane Center has identified Invest 99L as the system expected to develop. There is an 80% chance this will grow into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. If so, the next name on the list is Sara.

Model Forecast Tracks

The general expectation is for this to turn the corner near Cancun and head across Southern Florida early next week. It is TOO EARLY to give specifics. We need a central, organized Low plotted to get a better handle on how this will behave.

Model Forecast Intensity

There is a good indication that the environment supports growth to hurricane strength.

Forecast Animation: ECMWF Model

Next Tuesday, Nov 19 to Friday, Nov 22

I need to point out that this is only one solution. I wanted to show how the track may interact with another system and could lead to more rain in the Mid-Atlantic by the end of next week.

7 Day Forecast

After our rainfall, Friday will begin to clear and then lead us into a sunny and mild weekend.

Next week, the track of ‘Sara’ may help bring us more rain later in the week.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF