Rafael Becomes A Major Hurricane Before Hitting Cuba

Wednesday, November 6 2024

Hurricane Rafael has become the 5th major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Tropical Season. It had winds of 115mph, making it a Category 3 Hurricane. This comes just hours before it makes landfall in Western Cuba and then enters the Gulf of Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in place for the Florida Keys as they may get clipped by the eastern side. However, the core of the storm is expected to move into the Central Gulf.

Tropical Satellite

Hurricane Season lasts through November 30th, but I could only find seven other storms in this last month that became major hurricanes. This is not the eighth.

This season has had a late resurgence and high-quality forecasting from the National Hurricane Center. However, the modeling in the last two days showed a wide spread of potential tracks that could impact the United States. At this time, it looks like it will stay south and maybe turn back towards the Bay of Campeche.

National Hurricane Center SUMMARY OF 1 PM EDT

• LOCATION…22.0N 82.3W
• ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
• ABOUT 85 MI…135 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…956 MB…28.23 INCHES

Tropical IR Satellite Loop

Computer Model Forecast Intensity

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

• Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

• Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos
• Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge
• Dry Tortugas

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track

Forecast HWRF Model: Wednesday To Sunday

Interactive Windy  Widget

Recap Of The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season So Far:

Named Storms

1. Alberto June 19 to 20; Peaked As Tropical Storm
2. Beryl June 28  11; Peaked As Cat 5 Hurricane
3. Chris June 30 to July 1; Peaked As Tropical Storm
4. Debby August 3 to 9; Peaked as a Category 1 Hurricane
5. Ernesto August 12 to 20; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
6. Francine September 9 to 12; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
7. Gordon September 11 to 17; Tropical Storm
8. Helene September 24 t0 27; Cat 4 Hurricane. Landfall with 140 mph winds
9. Joyce September 27 to 30; Tropical Storm
10. Kirk September 29 to October 7; Cat 4 Hurricane: Ocean with 145 mph winds
11. Leslie October 2 to October 12; Cat 1 Hurricane
12. Milton October 5 to 10; Cat 5 Winds 180 mph
13. Nadine October 19 to 20; Peak 60 mph
14. Oscar October 19 to 22; Cat 1 Winds 85 mph
15. Patty November 2 to 4; Peak Winds 65 mph
16. Rafael November 4 to….

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF