November 4 Weather Big Warm Up For Election Day Then Cool Again Next Weekend

November 4, 2024

Monday Morning Report

The dry weather continues! Some high clouds have mixed in across our sky, but there is no measurable rain in sight. This will keep the drought growing along with concerns for wildfires. There have been a few popping up across Maryland and Pennsylvania already. The most recent was around Aberdeen with the smell of smoke filling the air across Harford County.

There have been fires in Pennsylvania near Chambersburg and one that may run for a few weeks in the Poconos.

We will have another warm-up this week, including Election Day, when temperatures will reach the upper 70s. Personally, I think this extreme pattern may time out and flip, bringing us a big chill around Thanksgiving. Faith in the Flakes.

Drought Update

• No Measurable Rain Since October 2nd = 33 Days!
• There was a ‘trace’ on October 4th and November 1st.
• Rainfall DOWN -6.33” since Sep 1

Fire Danger

The Burn Bans continue in Maryland and Pennsylvania due to the expanding drought. That includes no leaf piles or fire pits.

Here is the Fire Potential from The National Interagency Fire Center, showing how extensive this dry weather pattern is across the Eastern US. Yes, this includes some of the areas flooded by the hurricane last month.

Morning Temperatures at 6 AM

Morning Surface Weather

We have a Dirty High in place. That means High Pressure is in control, but high, thin cirrus clouds have spread in and may dim the sunshine at times.

We remain dry while severe storms expand across the Mid-West and a colder pattern has brought snow to Colorado near Denver.

Afternoon Forecast Temperatures

More in line with seasonable temperatures.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 4

Sunrise at 6:38 AM

Sunset at 5:02 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  40ºF

Record 22ºF in 151

Normal High in Baltimore: 62ºF

Record 83ºF 1974

ELECTION DAY: TUESDAY NOVEMBER 5

Warming Back Up

Morning Lows

Afternoon Highs

Animation: Wednesday to Friday

The next cold front will produce severe storms in the Central US, and like the last system… it will dissipate as it crosses the mountains. The front will pass Wednesday night, and cooler temperatures will arrive into the weekend, but only back to seasonable levels.

Wednesday

The warmest day of the week in the Eastern US.  Storms may turn severe along the cold front.

Friday

We remain dry while there may be a tropical storm approaching the Gulf Coast. If it does get named this week, it will be called Rafael.

Friday Tropics

That tropical system may get close to New Orleans.

National Hurricane Center Forecast

7 Day Forecast

Hit Repeat! Temps warm up and peak mid-week, then cool off again heading into the weekend.

There is no measurable rain in sight.

Personally, I believe the bottom will fall out just in time for  Thanksgiving.

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FIRST FROST DATES

Here are the average dates across Maryland, and they match the advisories we saw last week.

Click this image to see more details across Maryland and Pennsylvania.

FOUR SUPERMOONS OF 2024

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF