October 21 Feeling Like Summer For A Few Days Will Expand The Drought And Tropical Storm Oscar Update

October 21, 2024

Monday Morning Report

Be careful what you wish for. Many wanted a revival of the late summer weather, and we are in the middle of that warm-up now. However, this comes with the tradeoff of an extended period of dry weather. There is a drought that is severe on Delmarva to Extreme in the mountains. So while it will be a nice weather week, we may begin to build concern for wildfire risk.

TROPICS:

This weekend brought two surprises: the naming of Nadine and Oscar. Nadine made landfall in Belize, and the remnant energy has crossed into the Pacific.

Oscar was a true surprise. It flared up and quickly reached hurricane intensity. It crossed over Eastern Cuba and will be shifting into the Atlantic, away from land, over the next few days.

Tropical Satellite

Update at 5 AM From The National Hurricane Center

• LOCATION…20.2N 75.1W
• ABOUT 5 MI…10 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
• ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

Satellite Loop

Forecast Track From The National Hurricane Center

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi

* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo

* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey

* Central Bahamas

Morning Surface Weather

Oscar is being directed by the same High Pressure that is keeping our weather in the Eastern US so warm and dry.

Local Weather:

Afternoon Forecast Temperatures

Drought Update

The conditions are very dry for much of the region. A Severe Drought has been developing in the mountains from Western Maryland to West Virginia.

Extremely dry conditions on Delmarva will grow in this week ahead.

Baltimore Stats:

Rainfall

• -2.24” for the month
• Only had measurable rain on October 1 and 2
• Part of 11 days in a row from Sep 22 to Oct 2

BUT ONLY

• -4.65” since Sep 1

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY October 21

Sunrise at 7:23 AM

Sunset at 6:19 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  44ºF

Record 26ºF in 1952

Normal High in Baltimore: 67ºF

Record 90ºF 1947

FIRST FROST DATES

Here are the average dates across Maryland, and they match the advisories we saw last week.

Click this image to see more details across Maryland and Pennsylvania.

FOUR SUPERMOONS OF 2024

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TUESDAY OCTOBER 22

Still clear, quiet, and warmer than average.

Morning Low

Afternoon High

LOOKING AHEAD

Tuesday Surface Weather

Summer heat will pump in for a few days.

Animation: Tuesday to Sunday

A very quiet weather pattern even with the transition of air masses. Not much moisture to be found.

Saturday

The second surge of colder air will arrive with gusty winds.

Sunday

Back to the real feel of Fall…

7 Day Forecast

The transition back to ‘normal’ will be Thursday and Friday. Then a second surge of colder air will arrive this weekend.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF