Thursday October 10 2024
The Space Weather Prediction Center, a division of NOAA has issued a G4 Severe Geomagnetic Storm Forecast. This is second highest level and can produce The Northern Lights/Auroras in locations through The Mid Atlantic and even to The Gulf Coast, Texas, and California.
While we may be hoping for a beautiful display of colors at night, this warning is for the potential disruption to Power Grids and Satellite communication. See more below.
See the leading edge pulse at 15:00 Hours. This means we should begin to see the Planetary Kp index increase mid day and this afternoon. Setting us up for the potential show tonight.
These forecast are suggestions and not perfect.
Up to Kp=8 Thursday Night AND Friday.
Based on the chart below, I believe the Friday forecast is better for after midnight tonight in the early morning hours. There may be another chance Friday night that I am not seeing, but I would focus on tonight if you want to chase it.
Highlights in Red Are Best Viewing Opportunities in The Western Hemisphere.
UTC Is Universal Time Code. It is 4 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time. (12 UT = 8 AM EDT)
Time Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12
00-03UT 1.67 7.67 5.33
03-06UT 2.33 8.00 5.00
06-09UT 5.00 7.33 4.67
09-12UT 7.00 6.67 4.33
12-15UT 7.67 6.33 4.33
15-18UT 8.33 6.33 5.33
18-21UT 8.00 6.00 4.67
21-00UT 7.67 5.33 4.33
This light may get in the way of seeing fainter colors. This forecast for Baltimore at 10 PM shows it in the lower Southwestern Sky. It will set just before midnight (11:51 PM) improving chances for seeing more colors afterwards.
This was the view from Shenandoah National Park on Monday night. That was a Burt to Kp7.
Peter Forister (@forecaster25) and a seasoned veteran capturing many Northern Light events with amazing photography like this. His prints are available by clicking here.
I know this may sound silly, but the Northern Lights are best seen Looking NORTH. You may also want to get away from city lights and any obstructions like buildings or trees.
Getting higher in altitude will also improve your chances in lower latitudes.
I’ve highlighted the Mid Atlantic region. The Red Line is the Horizon line for the potential aurora. It may be seen in the this region and perhaps if conditions are right farther south into the Gulf Coast states, Texas, and California.
During storms, the heat they create increases “density and distribution of density in the upper atmosphere, causing extra drag on satellites in low-earth orbit,” the Space Weather Prediction Center said.
The local heat the storms create can also “modify the path of radio signals and create errors in the positioning information provided by GPS,” according to the center.
“Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours, Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.”
The power grid may also be affected by “possible widespread voltage control problems,” according to the SWPC.
This occurs 60 days per each 11 Year Cycle
Planetary Kp Index can reach 8 or 9-. This would support the southern viewing opportunity.
Power systems: Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.
Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: Induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.).
Hurricane Milton Morning Report: Back Over The Water In The Atlantic
Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring
Winter Weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November To March
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