Hurricane Milton Category 5 Again And Landfall Forecast Shifts South: New Storm Surge Maps

Tuesday Night, October 8, 2024

The intensity fluctuation has been expected to teeter between Category 4 and 5 today. An eyewall replacement cycle was completed, which is why this has re-intensified. This is common with superstorms like this.

In the latest report from the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT , winds were at 165 mph, making this a Category 5 Hurricane. The eye had cleared out and appears to be larger on satellite images.

Infrared Satellite at 9 PM EDT

The eye was 440 miles from Tampa, moving East-Northeast at 10 mph…. This will travel faster as it gets closer.

Milton has been a tightly compact storm but will double in size (or more) as it will eventually weaken and approach land on Wednesday.

National Hurricane Center SUMMARY OF 8 PM EDT

• LOCATION…23.0N 86.9W
• ABOUT 280 MI…450 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
• ABOUT 440 MI…710 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…165 MPH…270 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…902 MB…26.64 INCHES

IR Satellite Loop

WHY IT WILL NOT MOVE NORTH UP THE COAST

A large and strong cool air mass is bringing a fall chill to much of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. The cold front has pushed to the Southeast US and is acting like a BLOCK in the atmosphere.

The upper-level winds are helping to steer Milton and will increase the forward speed as it approaches Florida.

Forecast Track Adjustment:

The slight change also shifted the landfall location about 50 miles south… which could have a dramatic change in surge expectations along the coast.

See NEW CLOSE-UP Storm Surge Maps below.

Wind Damage

Hurricane Force Winds: Extend 30 miles from the center
Tropical Storm Force Winds: Extend 140 miles from the center. This is already getting larger.

THIS WILL EXPAND FARTHER AS THE THE STORM GETS WEAKER AND CLOSER TO LAND.

Hurricane-force winds will carry the storm all the way to the Atlantic Coast.

Tornadoes are common with landfalling tropical cyclones. This can be hundreds of miles from the center in outer bands. This will include much of the State of Florida.

Flooding

Saltwater Flooding is a Storm Surge. Six inches of water can move a person, and 12 inches of water can move an SUV or Truck. The forecast is 10 to 15 feet in the worst areas, which will push well inland.

Freshwater flooding is caused by rainfall. The forecast has 5 to 10 inches, but bands may overproduce 15”+. Some of these areas are 2 feet (24”) above the annual rainfall and have been very wet for the last two weeks.

Visible Satellite Loop

This was the afternoon view when it was upgraded to Cat 5. The eye is as well-defined as I’ve ever seen, displaying a very healthy storm.

Track Shifting South

The National Hurricane Center track has plotted landfall about 50 miles south of where it was expected earlier today. The timing is expected after midnight.

Tropical Storm Force Winds may be felt on the coast Wednesday morning.

HAFS-A Model Animation: Tue Night to Fri Morning

This has been doing a good job leading the pack with the track adjustment.

Landfall Forecast

GFS Model Landfall Forecast

GFS Model Animation: Wed Morning To Fri Morning

Rainfall Forecast

The Freshwater Flooding Likely

Upgraded 8 to 16 inches along and just north of the path.

Storm Surge

This will be the headline of the destruction and a shift to the south MAY result in a big difference for Tampa.

IF this verifies, while there will be initial flooding, after the eye passes the water may drain out of Tampa Bay for a few hours.

This new track plots landfall close to Sarasota and Siesta Key.

Farther South

• Siesta Key may get the 10 to 15-foot surge.
• Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda 8 to 12 Feet.
• Fort Myers 5 to 8 Feet.
• Naples and Marco Island 4 to 6 Feet.

Peak Storm Surge Forecasts

These remain from NHC, but may get adjusted to match the maps

• Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…10-15 ft
• Tampa Bay…10-15 ft
• Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…6-10 ft
• Charlotte Harbor…6-10 ft
• Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-10 ft
• Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…4-7 ft
• Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft
• Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 ft
• Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA…3-5 ft
• Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL…2-4 ft
• Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC…2-4 ft
• Dry Tortugas…2-4 ft
• St. Johns River…2-4 ft

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

• Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
• Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

• Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
• Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

• North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

• Dry Tortugas
• Lake Okeechobee
• Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
• Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River
• Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

• Dzilam to Cancun Mexico
• Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
• Lake Okeechobee
• Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
• Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
• Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo
• North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
• Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

• North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

LIVE RADAR Widget

Recap Of The 2024 Atlantic Tropical Season So Far:

Named Storms

1. Alberto June 19 to 20; Peaked As Tropical Storm
2. Beryl June 28  11; Peaked As Cat 5 Hurricane
3. Chris June 30 to July 1; Peaked As Tropical Storm
4. Debby August 3 to 9; Peaked as a Category 1 Hurricane
5. Ernesto August 12 to 20; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
6. Francine September 9 to 12; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
7. Gordon September 11 to 17; Tropical Storm
8. Helen September 24 t0 27; Cat 4 Hurricane. Landfall with 140 mph winds
9. Joyce September 27 to 30; Tropical Storm
10. Kirk September 29 to  ; Cat 4 Hurricane : Ocean with 145 mph winds
11. Leslie October 2 to ; Cat 1 Hurricane
12. Milton October 5 to

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

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