Hurricane Milton Barely Downgraded To Category 4 With 155 mph Winds

Tuesday Morning, October 8, 2024

The explosive development of Hurricane Milton peaked on Monday night when the pressure dropped to 897mb, making it the 5th strongest on record in the Atlantic Basin.

The 5 AM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center reported 155 mph winds, just barely making this a Category 4 storm (a Category 5 storm is over 156 mph). The pressure was up to 924 mb, so still an extremely dangerous storm.

Category 5 storms often go through an eyewall replacement cycle, so the core winds fluctuate. That is part of why the pressure is up, and wind speeds are down this morning. It still may regain strength back to Cat 5 today before the final drop ahead of landfall.

Milton is expected to be a Cat 3 when it arrives near Tampa. The latest model guidance suggests a later landfall between 11 PM and 5 AM Thursday.

Hurricane Force Winds: Extend 30 miles from the center
Tropical Storm Force Winds: Extend 105 miles from the center

The Explosive Development On Monday, October 7

• 5 AM Cat 2 100mph
• 7 AM Cat 3 120mph
• 9 AM Cat 4 150mph
• 11 AM Cat 4 155mph
• 12 PMCat 5 160mph
• 2  PM Cat 5 175mph
• 5 PM Cat 5 180 mph

In this report, I will show a few different satellite loops with the forecast maps and updated warnings.

Infrared Satellite at 5 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center SUMMARY OF 5 AM EDT

• LOCATION…22.3N 88.9W
• ABOUT 85 MI…140 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
• ABOUT 560 MI…905 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH…250 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…924 MB…27.29 INCHES

IR Satellite Loop

The storm still looks healthy, but the extent of the highest cloud tops has decreased. This may regain some strength today as a new eyewall forms and contracts.

Storm Surge

This will be the headline of the destruction.

Peak Storm Surge Forecasts

• Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…10-15 ft
• Tampa Bay…10-15 ft
• Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…6-10 ft
• Charlotte Harbor…6-10 ft
• Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-10 ft
• Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…4-7 ft
• Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft
• Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 ft
• Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA…3-5 ft
• Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL…2-4 ft
• Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC…2-4 ft
• Dry Tortugas…2-4 ft
• St. Johns River…2-4 ft

Here are a few things to highlight before getting to the latest stats, maps, and warnings:

SIZE OF HIGHEST IMPACT:

The storm will send rain bands out hundreds of miles. However, the winds described are really close to the center.

Hurricane Force Winds (over 74 mph) extend 30 miles from the center.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (over 39 mph) extend 105 miles from the center.

Storm Surge: Expected Devastation

This is the first time on record there has been a forecast for an 8 to 12 Ft storm surge for the Tampa Bay area.

This area was flooded on the outer edge of Hurricane Helene 10 days ago and has not recovered.

Landfall AFTER Peak Intensity: WAVE MEMORY

Milton may remain as a Category 5 for another day, then expected to weaken as it approaches land. This is deceptive. The storm will carry the WAVE MEMORY of the top wind speed for 24 to 48 hours. This is the sloshing of the waves that hold the energy longer.

These storms are known for massive storm surge flooding:

Katrina peaked at Cat 5 = 175 mph and hit as a Cat 3.

Isabel peaked at Cat 5 = 165 mph and dropped to a Category 2 for two days before landfall.

UPDATE National Hurricane Center Forecast Track/Cone

Compare this to the Model maps below.

Wind Arrival Time (for Tropical Storm Intensity)

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

• West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

• Celestun to Rio Lagartos
• Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

• Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

• Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
• Campeche to south of Celestun
• Dry Tortugas
• Lake Okeechobee
• Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
• Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

• Rio Lagartos to Cancun
• Campeche to south of Celestun
• All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
• Lake Okeechobee
• Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
• Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

• East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo
• Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

Windy Widget

HAFS Model Track Animation

HAFS-B Model: Landfall

This suggests the track is very close to Tampa after midnight into early Thursday morning.

ECMWF Model:  Landfall

This has postponed the arrival of the eye into Tampa until 5 AM Thursday.

Exiting To The Atlantic

ECMWF Model Animation

Rainfall Potential

A wide area will see between 5 and 10 inches of rain. The flooding will be accompanied by hurricane-force winds within around 50 to 70 miles of the eye path (the large area after landfall). A larger area will experience possible tornadoes.

Recap Of The 2024 Atlantic Tropical Season So Far:

Named Storms

1. Alberto June 19 to 20; Peaked As Tropical Storm
2. Beryl June 28  11; Peaked As Cat 5 Hurricane
3. Chris June 30 to July 1; Peaked As Tropical Storm
4. Debby August 3 to 9; Peaked as a Category 1 Hurricane
5. Ernesto August 12 to 20; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
6. Francine September 9 to 12; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
7. Gordon September 11 to 17; Tropical Storm
8. Helen September 24 t0 27; Cat 4 Hurricane. Landfall with 140 mph winds
9. Joyce September 27 to 30; Tropical Storm
10. Kirk September 29 to  ; Cat 4 Hurricane : Ocean with 145 mph winds
11. Leslie October 2 to ; Cat 1 Hurricane
12. Milton October 5 to

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

• Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

• Twitter

• Instagram

SCHEDULE A WEATHER BASED STEM ASSEMBLY

Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring

Winter Weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November To March

Click to see more and send a request for your school.

ALSO SEE

Equinox NOT Equal Daylight… Yet

SECOND OF FOUR FULL SUPERMOONS

Click to see the full report:

THANK YOU:

Baltimore Magazine Readers Choice Best Of Baltimore

Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat August 10

We raised OVER $104,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

Click here or the image to donate:

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF