Sunday October 6 2024
While still located in the western Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm Milton has winds up to 50 mph this morning. The track shows a slow movement and development for the next day. Then it will increase in forward speed and strength across very warm water.
The expectation this morning is that it will track near Tampa by Wednesday and is likely to reach Major Hurricane Intensity at Category 3 or 4. This area was flooded by Hurricane Helene last week and is still recovering.
This storm could have winds over 110 mph. As a result, there may be a devastating storm surge of over 10 feet, flooding rain, and destructive tornadoes across the central part of the state.
Governor DeSantis has issued a State of Emergency for 35 counties across Central and South Florida.
Named Storms
Compare this to the Model maps below:
This simulation accounts for the NHC track and timing with the tidal cycle. It does suggest over 10 feet of water entering Tampa Bay and the coast near Sarasota.
At this time, the agreement is that this may reach Category 3 or 4 intensity before making landfall in Florida. This would mean wind speeds over 110 mph.
This is the later solution, showing landfall on Thursday morning.
This is the earlier solution showing landfall on Wednesday, which is more in agreement with the National Hurricane Center track.
The path may bring up to 12 inches of rain across Central Florida, with a sharp cutoff to the north. This is subject to change with any fluctuation in the track.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
