Saturday, October 5 2024
The 2 PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center officially named Tropical Storm Milton. It is located in the southeast corner of the Gulf of Mexico and has winds of 40 mph.
With the organization of a central Low Pressure, there is now a better idea of how it will interact with other atmospheric features and track. The expectation continues earlier forecasts to track over Florida by the middle of next week. At that time we could be a strong hurricane. There is a range of intensity from Category 2 to 4 at landfall, but there is also a range of time for that landfall, and all can play a role in the development… which is still uncertain.
This report includes the first plot, satellite images, forecast maps/animations, and an interactive windy widget.
Named Storms
LOCATION…22.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI…590 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
At this time, the agreement is that this may reach Category 2 intensity before making landfall in Florida. Some model members are trying to tap into the very warm water and bring this up to Category 4.
This is the later solution, hitting after midnight on Wednesday Night.
The stronger side with higher winds and storm surge would be between Tampa and Fort Myers.
This is the earlier solution showing landfall on Wednesday Morning.
The stronger side with higher winds and storm surge would also be between Tampa and Fort Myers.
This suggests heavy rain will continue for Jacksonville and Northeastern Florida.
Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring
Winter Weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November To March
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
