October 5 Thick Morning Fog Warm Sunny Afternoon Clearing For The Aurora And Florida On Tropical Alert

Saturday October 5, 2024

Morning Report

There is a lot going on. Very thick fog formed overnight, and many areas remain with a slow burn-off. The Dense Fog Advisory was extended until 10 AM farther inland. This afternoon and tomorrow, most of the region will have warm weekend days in the upper 70s.

Tonight should be clear before more fog forms. This will allow for the potential viewing of the Northern Lights if you can get away from the city lights.

Next week brings us an autumn chill and maybe the first frost inland on Friday morning.

Meanwhile, the tropical outlook still shows an 80% chance of development and bringing flooding to parts of Florida.

Dense Fog Advisory

Visibility Reports at 8 AM

Morning Surface Weather

High Pressure has carved out a dry weekend (for the most part). Morning fog will burn off for a sunny and warm afternoon.

Afternoon Temperatures

Aurora Forecast

Two strong solar storms are approaching Earth through the weekend. The Space Weather Prediction Agency has posted these forecast Planetary Kp indexes.

In the Mid-Atlantic we have our best chance in the mountains when above 7; in lower elevations when above 8.

Note: We would also need a clear sky as well as away from city lights to see.

EXTENDED AND TROPICAL FORECASTS BELOW

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY October 5

Sunrise at 7:07 AM

Sunset at 6:42 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  51ºF

Record 35ºF in 1965; 1996

Normal High in Baltimore: 72ºF

Record 97ºF 1941

SUNDAY OCTOBER 6

Morning Low

Morning fog again possible, then clearing.

Afternoon High

A pleasant weekend day with sun and warmer temps.

Looking Ahead

Sunday Morning to Tuesday Morning

A cold front may produce some thundershowers Sunday night, and then a fresh air mass will open us up to much cooler air next week.

Sunday Night

Monday Morning

Tropical Outlook From National Hurricane Center

A boost to 70% for formation in the next 2 days; and 90% overall. This would actually be sooner since the forecast shows a storm that may make landfall in Florida on Wednesday.

ECMWF Model: Tuesday To Thursday

Tracking the potential of an organized tropical storm or hurricane to cross Florida.

Snapshot Wednesday Morning

Heads up between Tampa and Fort Myers.

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

This looks like a flooding event for South Florida, with 6 to 10 inches of rain over the next week.

BACK HOME: Cooler Temperature Outlook

The surge of cold air I mentioned yesterday will arrive on Friday, with the chance of the first inland frost of the season.

7 Day Forecast

After this warm weekend and a small chance for a Sunday night shower, next week will turn cooler.

If we get inland frost, the best chance will be Friday morning.

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF