Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Morning Report
The remaining energy from Helene is off the coast and helping to keep a damp Easterly wind in place. We have pockets of steady rain, with many other areas getting drizzle and fog. The morning commute is wet and may very well be slow again! There will be an improvement this afternoon.
The Baltimore Orioles host the Kansas City Royals for the first game of the playoffs, with the first pitch at 4:08 PM. By that point, the rain will break up into spotty showers… So the game should get in! It will feel wet and cool with temps in the 60s and a wind from the Northeast at 10 to 15 mph.
The pattern will break to get sun and warmer temps back for the end of the week.
Looking farther ahead, another tropical storm could form in the Gulf of Mexico next weekend, but the odds have dropped slightly.
The continued flow FROM THE EAST has kept the high water in place on the Chesapeake Bay. This will mean more flooding at high tide in Annapolis.
Showers will be more widespread this morning, then break up to be spotty this afternoon.
The remains of Helene have reached the East Coast. It is no longer tropical in any capacity. Just a rainmaker and that will be fading.
Dry air will gradually build in from the West, with a fresh air mass on the way for the latter part of the week and weekend.
The large-scale circulation shows the spin of the Remnant Low from Helene.
The wind FROM THE NORTHEAST is a wind ‘flowing in’ from the outfield to home plate at Camden Yards. This may hold up hard-hit balls and limit home runs at the game.
It will be cool and damp… But the Orioles game should be on time.
EXTENDED AND TROPICAL FORECASTS BELOW
TODAY October 1
Sunrise at 7:03 AM
Sunset at 6:48 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 53ºF
Record 36ºF in 1947
Normal High in Baltimore: 74ºF
Record 91ºF 1941
Still a damp feel to the air and cool, but less rain.
Still some spotty showers, but not as rainy.
NOTE: It is IMPOSSIBLE to plot a tropical event BEFORE a central Low Pressure has been identified and plotted on a map. So, any forecast tracks you may have seen are bogus.
As of this morning, the chance for ‘something’ to develop in the next 7 days has dropped to 40%! This is the same region where Helene came from, and it is still NOT the same thing!
This updated model plot is less aggressive with Low Pressure and has it lingering in the central Gulf of Mexico. There may be some upper level wind sheer limiting the formation and blowing the rain to the east over Florida.
A break from the clouds and rain will gradually return by Thursday. Then, we set up for a warm weekend.
Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
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