Winter Weather Advisory Expanded And My Call For Ice Saturday
Friday Night Update February 72025 Our next ice event has already had the Winter Weather Advisory expanded to more of Maryland. This may look similar to the Thursday morning event…
Hurricane Helene Upgraded To Category 2 With 100 mph Winds
storm surge
Flooding
National Hurricane Center
Forecast
Tropics
Warnings
Thursday, September 26 2024
Hurricane Helene is strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico, and today is the day it is expected to build up quickly and then speed up in forward motion before making landfall tonight. A State of Emergency is still in effect for much of Florida and into Georgia. Evacuations have been underway. Today will be the waiting game before landfall tonight.
At Category 2, as of the 8 am advisory this morning, the top sustained winds are 100 mph, within 60 miles of the center. This is a large storm, however, with tropical storm winds reaching 345 miles from the center. That makes it nearly 700 miles wide! The storm has the potential for various types of damage, including heavy rain leading to flooding, wind damage, multiple tornadoes, and storm surge.
Helene is expected to reach Category 3 as it tracks over warmer pockets of water (86ºF to 89ºF) this afternoon. The brief outlook for a Category 4 has been lowered, but it will still be a Major Hurricane with winds over 110 mph. Regardless of the wind speed, it will be devastating to a large area.
This report has the latest maps and forecasts from this morning. Also, New Watches and Warnings.
Also, see the interactive Windy Widget below.
STORM SURGE
The most destructive part of this system may be the salt water pushing onshore ahead of landfall. The National Hurricane Center is now predicting a high storm surge of 15 ft to 20 ft for a large area north of Tampa. But most of the Gulf Coast of Florida will have salt water flooding on the strong side of the storm.
IR Satellite Snapshot
National Hurricane Center Update: 8 AM THU
- LOCATION…24.5N 85.9W ABOUT 320 MI…515 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
- ABOUT 365 MI…585 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB…28.35 INCHES
IR Satellite Loop
OFFICIAL NHC MAPS THEN MODEL MODELS BELOW
Forecast Track – Updated Thursday Morning
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
Computer Model Forecast Tracks
Updated Thursday Morning
Arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds above 39 mph
This is before the worst of the system and when the impacts and potential damage begins.
WINDY Interactive Widget
Computer Model Forecast Tracks
HWRF Model Animation:
Thursday to Sunday
Snapshot Thursday Night
The expected intensity at landfall has been revised slightly, with predictions now pointing to a Category 3 storm rather than the feared Category 4. However, it will still bring significant devastation.
ECMWF Model: Thursday Night
Animation Today Through Sunday
This Low is still expected to track well inland to the Northwest and nearly stall.
Snapshot Friday Night
The rain bands reach the Mid-Atlantic, then the system cuts off.
Rainfall Potential: Eastern US
Note that some additional rainfall has already occurred, especially between Atlanta and Nashville, from a different system over the past few days.
Recap Of The 2024 Atlantic Tropical Season So Far:
Named Storms
- Alberto June 19 to 20; Peaked As Tropical Storm
- Beryl June 28 11; Peaked As Cat 5 Hurricane
- Chris June 30 to July 1; Peaked As Tropical Storm
- Debby August 3 to 9; Peaked as a Category 1 Hurricane
- Ernesto August 12 to 20; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
- Francine September 9 to 12; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
- Gordon September 11 to 17; Tropical Storm
- Helene September 24 to …
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SECOND OF FOUR FULL SUPERMOONS
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
