Helene Almost A Major Hurricane With 110 mph Winds: Will Be Stronger At Landfall Tonight

Thursday, September 26 2024

UPDATE AT 3PM

US Air Force Reconnaissance found 120 mph winds  This makes it Major Hurricane Helene at Category 3

Click this image for the newer report

At the top end of Category 2, we are looking at Hurricane Helene with 110 mph winds and a central pressure of 959 mb. This is the growth that was expected, and by the next scheduled advisory at 5 p.m., it will likely be a major hurricane Category 3.

The track is still expected to make landfall tonight close to 11 PM and then track almost directly over Tallahassee, FL, and Atlanta, GA, on Friday morning. More on the rest of the path below.

This is one of the largest storms in this region on record.  Hurricane-force winds reach 60 miles of the center. The tropical storm force winds reach 345 miles from the center. At nearly 700 miles wide, the impact will be far-reaching.  There is a focus on the landfall and the incredible storm surge forecast up to 20 Ft across the Big Bend of Florida. The additional conditions and damage may include flooding from heavy rain, wind damage, and multiple tornadoes.

This update includes the storm conditions, images, forecasts,  AND impact later this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic when the remains try to reach the East Coast.

Also, see the interactive Windy Widget below.

Satellite Views

We can see the development of deep convection (high-top thunderstorms) wrapping around the center. This helps to define the eye wall where the strongest winds are located AND clear out the center eye as well.

Visible Satelite Loop

Snapshot

Infrared Satellite Loop

Snapshot

National Hurricane Center Update: 2 PM THU

• LOCATION…26.4N 85.0W
• ABOUT 195 MI…315 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
• ABOUT 230 MI…365 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…959 MB…28.32 INCHES

Tracking over warmer pockets of water (86ºF to 89ºF), the added danger is that this may be in an intensifying phase as it makes landfall. That makes it more dangerous and able to hold better circulation farther inland.

Power Crews Staged In Anticipation

STORM SURGE

The most destructive part of this system may be the salt water pushing onshore ahead of landfall. The National Hurricane Center is now predicting a high storm surge of 15 ft to 20 ft for a large area north of Tampa. But most of the Gulf Coast of Florida will have salt water flooding on the strong side of the storm.

OFFICIAL NHC MAPS THEN MODEL MODELS BELOW

Forecast Track – Updated Thursday Afternoon

Forecast Landfall – HWRF Model

This has been very consistent, showing landfall and tracking near Tallahassee. This area has never recorded a direct hurricane eye passing over. It is subject to extensive damage and power outages that may last weeks.

Category 3 = 111  to 130 mph

Category 4 = 131 to 156 mph

WINDY Interactive Widget

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

• Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
• Tampa Bay
• Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

• Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

• Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

• Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
• Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
• West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
• Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
• Lake Okeechobee

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

Updated Thursday Afternoon

There is a noticeable cluster north of Nashville and then a shift towards Maryland. It will not be tropical at that point but will be plotted below.

HWRF Model Animation:

Thursday to Sunday

GFS Model Forecast Animation Today Through Sunday

This Low is still expected to track well inland to the Northwest and nearly stall when merging with an upper-level Low. This will shift slowly east and may stall again over the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.

Snapshots

Friday Morning

Low Pressure is expected to be tracking through Northern Georgia and making the turn Northwest farther inland and away from the East Coast.

Friday Night

The rain bands reach the Mid-Atlantic, and then the system cuts off.

Saturday

The upper-level Low remains nearly stalled. The East Coast will be warm and humid, with only showers that may pop in the afternoon and evening.

Sunday

Rain in the Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level Low passes over Maryland.

Monday

Rain may redevelop over Maryland.

Rainfall Potential: Eastern US

Rainfall Potential: Mid-Atlantic over Maryland

There will be rain on Friday and again on Sunday. As of now, Saturday is looking warm and humid, but showers will be limited to scattered pop-ups later in the day.

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF