Tropical Storm Helene Growing Strong With New Warnings And State Of Emergency For FL and GA

Wednesday, September 25 2024

A State of Emergency is in effect for 61 counties in Florida, and Georgia has joined the urgency. Tropical Storm Helene has winds of 65 mph, and the tropical storm intensity expands 175 miles from the center. The storm is close to 400 miles wide!

The storm center is located in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, 55 miles from Cancun.

The storm is expected to rapidly grow when entering the warm waters (86ºF to 89ºF) of the Gulf of Mexico. It will become a hurricane later today. The concern is that this may become a major hurricane and could make landfall in Florida as a Major Hurricane Category 3 later on Thursday.

Near the center of the path, flooding from heavy rain (up to 10 inches) and a high storm surge (up to 15 feet) is expected, in addition to wind damage from the storm itself and squalls with tornadoes inland.

This report has the latest maps and forecasts from Wednesday morning. Also New Watches and Warnings.

Also see the interactive Windy Widget below.

IR Satellite Snapshot

National Hurricane Center Update: 5 AM WED

• LOCATION…20.7N 86.2W
• ABOUT 45 MI…75 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
• ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES

IR Satellite Loop

Arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds above 39 mph

This is before the worst of the system and when the impact and potential damage begins.

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

Updated Wednesday Morning.

Computer Model Forecast Intensity

Updated Wednesday Morning

Many models have it at Category 3 strength by landfall on Thursday: Winds 110 mph or higher.

ALSO SEE THE IMPACT POTENTIAL

My post on Facebook last night

HWRF Model Animation:

Wednesday Morning to Saturday Morning

Snapshot Thursday Evening

At this time, the wind forecast is suggested to be OVER 100 knots = 115 mph. That would be Category 3.

ECMWF Model Thursday Night

Rainfall Potential

WIDER VIEW

Forecast Track/Cone/Timing: National Hurricane Center

Storm Surge Map

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

• Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
• Tampa Bay
• Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

• Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
• Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

• Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
• Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

• Dry Tortugas
• All of the Florida Keys
• The Florida west coast from Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
• West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line
• The Florida east coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River
• Lake Okeechobee
• Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
• Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* The Georgia and South Carolina coast north of the mouth of the St. Mary’s River to the South Santee River.

WINDY Interactive Widget

Use the button to scroll to later today, when this storm may take form near Cancun and enter the Gulf of Mexico.

Weather Highlights

Rainfall: 3 to 6 inches with up to 10 inches near the landfall path.

Storm Surge: Expected 1 to 3 Ft in the Florida Keys. This could push to 10 Ft to 15 Ft near landfall in Florida’s Big Bend area, but the entire Gulf Coast of Florida will be affected.

FUJIWHARA EFFECT: STEERING THE STORM

A deep trough in the Jet Stream (seen here at 18,000 Ft) is expected to pinch off of the closed Low. This larger circulation will capture and pull the smaller circulation of Helene:

The storm speeds up forward motion. The track will move North and THEN Northwest into the Ohio Valley.

While heavy rain bands may reach the coastal Carolinas, the main storm will make the turn in Georgia farther inland.

The animation shows that this may get absorbed as the energy diminishes to a tropical depression.

Snapshots

Thursday Night

The peak intensity of the hurricane, while over water, is expected to landfall late Thursday night.

Friday Morning

Tracking into Georgia and weakening to a Tropical Storm. It will turn North, then Northwest, away from the East Coast.

Friday Night

The remnant Tropical Depression will lose identity as the energy gets absorbed into the Closed Upper-Level Low.

If this verifies, it may have a repeating impact on Atmospheric Memory into the winter season worth studying.

Recap Of The 2024 Atlantic Tropical Season So Far:

Named Storms

• Alberto June 19 to 20; Peaked As Tropical Storm
• Beryl June 28  11; Peaked As Cat 5 Hurricane
• Chris June 30 to July 1; Peaked As Tropical Storm
• Debby August 3 to 9; Peaked as a Category 1 Hurricane
• Ernesto August 12 to 20; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
• Francine September 9 to 12; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
• Gordon September 11 to 17; Tropical Storm
• Helen September 24 to …

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ALSO SEE

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SECOND OF FOUR FULL SUPERMOONS

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF