Hurricane Helene Has 80 mph Winds And Growing Stronger Entering Gulf Of Mexico

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Earlier today, Helene was upgraded to a hurricane, and now the expected strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico will take place ahead of landfall. At Category 1, the top sustained winds are 80 mph, within 25 miles of the center. This is a large storm, however, with tropical storm winds reaching 275 miles from the center. That makes it over 500 miles wide. There are outer rain bands in Florida that can be considered to make this even larger!

Helene is expected to reach Category 3 or higher, making it a Major Hurricane with winds over 110 mph. The number at this point is academic as it will bring destruction to a large area as this has a big footprint.

The storm is expected to grow rapidly when entering the warm waters (86ºF to 89ºF ) of the Gulf of Mexico. Flooding from heavy rain (up to 10 inches) and high storm surge (up to 18 Ft in some areas) is expected near the center of the path, in addition to wind damage from the storm itself AND squalls with tornadoes inland.

One important factor is that this may make landfall while still intensifying. That makes it much more destructive than a stronger storm weakening. It’s like a team with a poor record, barely making the playoffs but ending the regular season on a hot streak. That is the team to watch in the post season. Here, a growing storm will have an impact farther inland because of the spin aloft, even though the lack of water will weaken it.

This report has the latest maps and forecasts from Wednesday morning. Also, New Watches and Warnings.

Also, see the interactive Windy Widget below.

IR Satellite Snapshot

National Hurricane Center Update: 2 PM WED

• LOCATION…22.0N 86.4W
• ABOUT 110 MI…175 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
• ABOUT 480 MI…775 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB…28.94 INCHES

Afternoon Surface Weather

Hurricane Helene is located near Cancun, with some rain bands already reaching Florida.

The cold front in the Southern Appalachians already has strong thunderstorms in place. These two systems will interact to enhance the flooding potential well inland.

Forecast Tracks: National Hurricane Center

IR Satellite Loop

Computer Model Forecast Intensity

Updated Wednesday Afternoon

Many models have it at Category 3 strength by landfall on Thursday: Winds 110 mph or higher.

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

Updated Wednesday Afternoon.

Arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds above 39 mph

This is before the worst of the system and when the impacts and potential damage begins.

Storm Surge Forecast

HWRF Model Animation:

Wednesday to Saturday Morning

Snapshot Thursday Night

At this time, the wind forecast is suggested to be over 100 knots or 115 mph. That would be Category 3.

GFS Model Snapshot

Rainfall Potential

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo

* Tampa Bay

* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas

* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line

* Flamingo northward to South Santee River

* Lake Okeechobee

* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico

* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet

Forecast Track/Cone/Timing: National Hurricane Center

WINDY Interactive Widget

Use the button to scroll to when this storm takes form near Cancun and enters the Gulf of Mexico.

FUJIWHARA EFFECT: STEERING THE STORM

A deep trough in the Jet Stream (seen here at 18,000 Ft) is expected to pinch off the closed Low. This larger circulation will capture and pull the smaller circulation of Helen. The storm speeds up forward motion.

The track will move North and THEN Northwest into the Ohio Valley.

While heavy rain bands may reach the coastal Carolinas, the main storm will make the turn in Georgia farther inland.

The animation shows that this may get absorbed as the energy diminishes to a tropical depression.

Thursday Night

The peak intensity of the hurricane, while over water, is expected to make landfall Thursday night.

Impact Inland

GFS Model Thursday Afternoon Through Sunday Night

The latest suggestion is that Helene will still be pulled well inland across the Ohio River Valley. After getting absorbed into the Upper-Level Low, it will swing east and bring another round of steady rain to the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.

Rainfall Potential: Eastern US

Recap Of The 2024 Atlantic Tropical Season So Far:

Named Storms

• Alberto June 19 to 20; Peaked As Tropical Storm
• Beryl June 28  11; Peaked As Cat 5 Hurricane
• Chris June 30 to July 1; Peaked As Tropical Storm
• Debby August 3 to 9; Peaked as a Category 1 Hurricane
• Ernesto August 12 to 20; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
• Francine September 9 to 12; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
• Gordon September 11 to 17; Tropical Storm
• Helene September 24 to …

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

• Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

• Twitter

• Instagram

SCHEDULE A WEATHER BASED STEM ASSEMBLY

Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring

Winter Weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November To March

Click to see more and send a request for your school.

ALSO SEE

Equinox NOT Equal Daylight… Yet

SECOND OF FOUR FULL SUPERMOONS

Click to see the full report:

THANK YOU:

Baltimore Magazine Readers Choice Best Of Baltimore

Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat August 10

We raised OVER $104,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

Click here or the image to donate:

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF