Sara Just Named As The 17th Tropical Storm Of The Season
Wednesday, November 14 2024 Tropical Storm Sara was just named in the Western Caribbean. With a minimal 40 mph wind speed, it will hug the Central American coastline and make…
Tropical Storm Helene Named: New Florida Watches And State Of Emergency
storm surge
Flooding
National Hurricane Center
Tropics
Warnings
Tuesday, September 24 2024
The National Hurricane Center has named the eighth tropical storm of the Atlantic season. Its winds are 45 mph, and its intensity expands 140 miles from the center. This storm is located in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, 170 miles south of Cuba and 180 miles from Cancun. The path will be in between.
LOTS OF DATA AND MAPS IN THIS POST
The storm is expected to grow rapidly when entering the warm waters (86ºF to 89ºF ) in the Gulf of Mexico. The concern is that this may become a major hurricane and could make landfall in Florida as a Category 3 or 4 later on Thursday.
Visible Satellite Snapshot
Governor DeSantis has declared a State of Emergency for 61 counties in Florida. New Watches have also been issued for potential Tropical Storm, Hurricane, and Storm Surge.
See the model forecasts and interactive Windy Widget at the bottom of this post after the computer model maps.
IR Satellite Snapshot
IR Satellite Loop
National Hurricane Center Update: 11 AM TUE
- LOCATION…19.5N 84.3W
- ABOUT 180 MI…295 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
- ABOUT 170 MI…275 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
- PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES
MODEL FORECAST MAPS BELOW
Forecast Track/Cone/Timing: National Hurricane Center
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Indian Pass
* Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Flamingo to south of Englewood
* West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line
Storm Surge Forecast
- Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL…10-15 ft
- Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL…6-10 ft
- Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL…5-10 ft
- Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL…5-8 ft
- Tampa Bay…5-8 ft
- Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…4-7 ft
- Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…3-5 ft
- Charlotte Harbor…3-5 ft
Storm Surge Forecast
- Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL…10-15 ft
- Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL…6-10 ft
- Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL…5-10 ft
- Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL…5-8 ft
- Tampa Bay…5-8 ft
- Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…4-7 ft
- Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…3-5 ft
- Charlotte Harbor…3-5 ft
Computer Model Forecast Tracks
Updated Tuesday Morning
Computer Model Forecast Intensity
Updated Tuesday Morning
Many models predict Category 3 or 4 strength at landfall on Thursday: winds 110 mph or higher.
HWRF Model Animation:
Tuesday Morning to Saturday Morning
Snapshot Thursday Evening
At this time, the wind forecast suggests that it will be over 100 knots or 115 mph, which would be Category 3.
HWRF Model
GFS Model
Rainfall Potential
Weather Highlights
Rainfall: 3 to 6 inches with up to 10 inches near the landfall path.
Storm Surge: Expected 1 to 3 Ft in the Florida Keys. This could push to 10 Ft near landfall north of Tampa, but the entire Gulf Coast of Florida will be affected.
FUJIWHARA EFFECT: STEERING THE STORM
A deep trough in the Jet Stream (seen here at 18,000 Ft) is expected to pinch off the closed Low. This larger circulation will capture and pull the smaller circulation of Helene:
The storm speeds up forward motion.
The track will move North and THEN Northwest into the Ohio Valley.
While heavy rain bands may reach the coastal Carolinas, the main storm will make the turn in Georgia farther inland.
The animation shows that this may get absorbed as the energy diminishes to a tropical depression.
Snapshots
Thursday
Friday
The remnant Tropical Depression will lose identity as the energy gets absorbed into the Closed Upper-Level Low.
If this verifies, it may have a repeating impact on Atmospheric Memory into the winter season worth studying.
WINDY Interactive Widget
Use the button to scroll to Wednesday, when this storm may take form near Cancun and enter the Gulf of Mexico.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
- Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
- Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
- Grand Cayman
- Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
- Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
- Dry Tortugas
- Lower Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge
Recap Of The 2024 Atlantic Tropical Season So Far:
Named Storms
- Alberto June 19 to 20; Peaked As Tropical Storm
- Beryl June 28 11; Peaked As Cat 5 Hurricane
- Chris June 30 to July 1; Peaked As Tropical Storm
- Debby August 3 to 9; Peaked as a Category 1 Hurricane
- Ernesto August 12 to 20; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
- Francine September 9 to 12; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
- Gordon September 11 to 17; Tropical Storm
- Helene September 24…
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
