September 23 2024
Monday Morning
The tropical Atlantic appears to be trying to pulse with activity one more time as we begin Fall. The broad area of Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean to the Central Gulf of Mexico is our main interest. The National Hurricane Center has increased the likelihood of development to 90% in the next 7 days. More importantly is the next 2 days with a chance of up to 70%. The forecast outlook below has multiple models shifting the focus farther west into the central US and away from the East Coast.
The storm has not formed yet. When a central Low Pressure is identified, the time and location are critical to lock in on a more refined forecast.
Another area of high interest may also develop in the next week. But that is farther out in the ocean, with little threat to land.
The next two names on the list are Helene and Isaac.
See the interactive Windy Widget at the bottom of this post after the compute model maps.
A few regions are being tracked, but the red-shaded area is the one we are concerned with. Reminder that this is the 7-Day outlook. I’ve added the 2-Day Potential for the closer system. This may organize to have 39 mph winds and get a name by Wednesday.
Water Temperatures are in the upper 80s, which supports development if the upper-level winds cooperate.
There will be a storm named Helene this week, and a good chance for Isaac as well.
Last week, we watched a strong low-pressure system off the coast of South Carolina that was expected to become Helene but did not. It did have 50 mph winds and 20 inches of rainfall in coastal North Carolina, but it did not have a true tropical structure.
This new area is different as it is farther south and over very warm water. It has a better chance to become a true tropical structure with a central warm core.
Named Storms
Yesterday I showed a focus on the American GFS Model towards the East Coast and the European ECMWF Model pushing North into the Central US.. The collection of models now agrees with the ECWMF, and that will be my focus here.
The very warm water and supportive upper-level winds now push a lot of guidance to make this storm a Category 3 Hurricane or Stronger at landfall.
Reminder, this is the model that had a similar solution yesterday so it seems to have a better handle as of now.
This takes a lot of the rain away from the East Coast and pushes a broad area of 3 or more inches across the Southeast US to Central Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
Use the button to scroll to Wednesday, when this storm may take form near Cancun and enter the Gulf of Mexico.
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