September 22 First Day Of Fall Arrives After Big Storms: The Week Ahead Will Turn Rainy And Also Maybe A Tropical Storm

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Morning Report

Today is the first day of Fall, and it will start to feel like it. But last night, we had a very strong cluster of thunderstorms roll through our region. The most intense was between 1 AM and 4 AM, which was close to the expectations. They still woke up many and knocked out power in areas. Lots of lighting, loud thunder, and even large hail was reported—a rarity this time of year… especially after midnight.

Radar Recap 1 AM to 3:30 AM

Here is the post I made just after 1:35 AM. The comments help tell the story of the impact from Southern PA to North Central Maryland.

TODAY:

Fall officially begins at 8:43 AM. This is when the sun’s direct rays cross the equator and then shift south until spring. Our daylight is getting about 2 minutes and 30 seconds shorter each day! This rapid drop translates to temperatures in our climate record getting one degree cooler every three days.

The week ahead will bring clouds, cooler temps in the 70s, and showers almost every day. The best chance for steady rain might be Wednesday and Thursday, with a slowly moving frontal boundary.

Later in the week and weekend, the outlook is uncertain. The wild card is the potential for a tropical storm to develop. More on this below.

Coastal Flood Warning

The highest water in places like Annapolis maybe with the high tide this morning. It has overflowed into the City Dock parking lot.

Annapolis High Tides:

• Sunday: 8:57 AM; 9:50 PM

Cloud Forecast: 8 AM to 6 PM

Clouds should be pushed inland with the easterly wind. The sky will range from partly sunny (more clouds) inland to clearing farther east.

Afternoon Snapshot

Afternoon Temperatures

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY September 22

Sunrise at 6:55 AM

Sunset at 7:03 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  57ºF

Record 37ºF in 1962

Normal High in Baltimore: 78ºF

Record 99ºF 1931 (Record Heat Wave That Year)

SECOND OF FOUR FULL SUPERMOONS

Click to see the full report:

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 23

Morning Temperatures

Wind Forecast 6 AM to 4 PM

A light breeze and more clouds will help to hold temperatures in the lower 70s for the eastern areas. It will be warmer west of the mountains.

Afternoon Temperatures

LOOKING AHEAD

GFS Model Forecast Animation

Monday Through Friday

The weather pattern is set up for a slow-moving cold front that will crawl and nearly stall over the Eastern US. Steadier rain will fall across the Ohio Valley and across the mountains, sending waves of showers our way each day. The steadier rain will shift into the I-95 corridor Wednesday into Thursday.

The big question is the potential tropical system trying to form in the Gulf of Mexico and move onshore by the end of the week. More on that below.

Wednesday Afternoon

The slow-moving boundary is expected to crawl east and nearly stall over the Mid-Atlantic by this time. That would bring steady moderate to heavy rain for much of the day.

Thursday Morning

The best chance for steady rain along that stationary boundary.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

The National Hurricane Center 7-Day Outlook

The odds are up to 70% for development this week.

Storm Tracks

There is a big difference between the GFS and European ECMWF Models. This is due to the fact that the storm hasn’t formed yet. The models will not get a good handle on it until there is a distinct low-pressure center, where it forms, and when it happens.

Click here or the images for the complete morning tropical report.

7 Day Forecast

This graphic looks like a very wet week, but the days most likely to be rainy are Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, we will be tracking on and off showers. The end of the week and weekend are all dependent on the potential development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

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THANK YOU:

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Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat August 10

We raised OVER $104,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF