September 3, 2024
Now that Labor Day has passed, we shift our focus to the season ahead, or rather two seasons ahead for winter. The cooler days and chilly nights may have fellow snow lovers anxious for the hope of finally getting back to a bunch of flakes. As we explore the report here, I want to caution that it is only a suggestion and possibly reverse psychology may be applied.
I have been advised that using the word ‘quiet’ is taboo for First Responders. Nurses, firefighters, and even police have an ‘unwritten rule’ to not use that word, or the opposite is about to end peace and calm with a bunch of calls and patients.
How about the reverse for weather outlooks? This year was expected to bring a very busy hurricane season with near record number of storms in the tropical Atlantic. So far it has been rather lackluster to start September.
During the past two years, the two most famous farmers almanacs had both called for snowy winters and the opposite had occurred. Two winters ago was our least snowy on record since 1883. Let’s not do that again, OK?
Perhaps there is something we can learn and use here? This year both almanacs discussed here are noting that their outlook is very different.
For what it’s worth, in my business of weather forecasting, there are people who trust me as well as others who think I am ‘always wrong’. In that case, I suggest to the naysayers to plan for the exact opposite. Think about that as we take a look here.
Last year, I said it would snow more because it could not snow less. Well, technically, I was right, at least in Baltimore for reports at BWI Airport:
Last year, both had headlines of Wet Winter Whirlwind and The Brrr is Back. The Mid-Atlantic region was plotted to be “COLD, SNOWY” and “Frosty, Flakey, Slushy”. With our verified 2024 winter snow total slightly above only 59% of average, this is hardly validation of these news grabbers.
We will not get specifics in the vague seasonal overview. This year, it is a bit more subdued. We can either see this as more reasonable or maybe their version of using the word ‘quiet’.
States an 80% accuracy
“This winter, temperatures will be up and snowfall down throughout most of the United States,” reports Carol Connare, the Almanac’s editor-in-chief. “While there will still be plenty of chilly temperatures and snow for most slopes, the high heating costs associated with the season shouldn’t hit so hard. We’re predicting a temperate, uneventful winter—potentially a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years.”
Heavy snowfall is expected in central and southern Appalachia, the western Ohio Valley.
This does suggest our region may end up with a few heavy snow storms regardless of the overall winter temperatures being warmer than average.
Buy your copy:
The 2025 Old Farmer’s Almanac is available in stores wherever books and magazines are sold.
“We anticipate the winter of 2024-25 will be wet and cold for most locations”. This seems to contradict the other Almanac, and then the regional details explained are more similar.
“Winter in New England and the Northeast will be stormy with above-normal amounts of winter precipitation and near-to above-normal temperatures. Snow will be most prevalent over the interior and mountainous terrains, while sleet and rain will be more common near the coast, especially near and along the I-95 corridor.”
This suggests that many storms for metro and coastal areas will be more of an icy mix or just rain. Reading between the lines, I see this outlook suggesting another season with lower-than-normal snow.
“The season’s coldest temperatures will be found from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes region. But areas east of the Rockies into the Appalachians will also experience many periods of cold conditions. The coldest outbreak of the season will come during the final week of January into the beginning of February when frigid Arctic air brings a sharp plunge in temperatures almost nationwide, but especially across the Northern Plains. As this very cold air blows across the Great Lakes, heavy snow showers and snow squalls will bring intense bursts of snow to the lee (east) of the Lakes.”
To their credit…
This almanac does not mention their accuracy rate. Rather, they state this:
“Today, our formula uses some of the original rules set forth back in 1818 but also accounts for fluctuations in the environment on Earth, as well as sunspots, the motion of the Moon, and other proprietary factors. Yes, nature throws us a curveball from time to time, but it doesn’t stop us from going out on a limb to not only predict what the weather may bring up to a year in advance, but to also put it in print.
Buy a copy of the 2025 Farmer’s Almanac
How Does The Farmer’s Almanac Predict The Weather?
How Accurate? Review Of Winters Since 1954
I always encourage getting information from multiple sources. That is why I show you others and gladly support you visiting them or getting your own copy to explore fully.
If these reports do not seem encouraging for an active snowy winter, maybe that might actually be the trick to get it to really happen? A boy can hope. Hahaha…
Preparing my winter outlook takes a little more time. I will do my research and work on it over the next two months. I aim to have my perspective within a week of Halloween.
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation is currently neutral but often expected to be a major player. There is a La Niña Watch for the Pacific waters around the equator to trend colder. This may play a role in the winter storm pattern in North America. La Niña winters often tend to be warmer.
Under certain combinations of meteorological conditions, the polar vortex can be displaced from the North Pole, which could open the door for cold blasts to hit southern Canada and the central and eastern United States during this upcoming winter.
Click here for more on these winter patterns and local LOW SNOW history.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
