Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 11/21/2024 06:40:02 pm
Temperature

44°

Mostly Cloudy

32°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

62%

Feels Like

39°

Wind (WNW)

8mph

Air Pressure

29.6

Sun
Sun Rise

06:57 AM

Sun Set

04:48 PM

Day Length

09:51 Hours

Difference

1 min 39 sec loss

Moon
Moon Rise

10:33 PM

Moon Set

12:24 PM

Next: Last Quarter

Nov 22,2024

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

35°

54°

Average High
Record Low

16°


(1951)

79°


(1900)
Record High
Conditions

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 11 PM AND Flood Watch Until Midnight

Flooding
Maryland Weather
rain timeline
Severe Weather
Forecast
Warnings

Thursday, August 29, 2024

The transition from this latest surge of heat to cooler weather is being met with a new round of strong to severe thunderstorms. This may include claps of thunder through midnight as they move east and residual showers at the beaches by sunrise.

The complication we have is a stationary front that will be wandering or meandering for a few days. There is little influence to push this, so where it located is where the storms will set up, and can be off from the forecast models.

I want to show you the two short-range models for this event through Friday morning and see how they compare to the live radar. Note that these are suggestions, but one model may have a better handle than another. The forecast challenge is to identify which one to follow.

Alert Reminder

WATCH = POTENTIAL. This means it might happen but not promised. The ingredients are there to form these storms.

WARNING = PROBLEM. This means it IS HAPPENING AND BEING TRACKED.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Any storm may reach the criteria to produce:

  • Flooding
  • Wind Gusts Over 58 mph
  • Large Hail Over 1-inch Diameter
  • Isolated Tornadoes

This includes the western suburbs of Baltimore in Howard and Carroll Counties of Maryland, metro Washington DC, and westward through the mountains. This area will get the storms earlier. As they move east overnight, they will weaken.

August 29 Severe Thunderstorm Watch

 

Flood Watch

There is potential for heavy rainfall to produce rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour in slow-moving storm cells. This includes mainly the suburbs on the west side of Washington, DC, and west to the mountains. This is not expected in central Maryland and metro Baltimore, as the storms will weaken as they move east tonight.

August 29 Flood Watch

 

Nowcasting Back at 6 PM

I grabbed the Doppler Radar and compared it to the NAM 3 Km Model and HRRR Model. This may help to show which is performing better today and is more likely to be accurate tonight. The NAM is much more active than the HRRR with this event.

Doppler Radar Snapshot

August 29 storm doppler radar Thursday evening

 

NAM 3 Km Model Forecast

This was not perfect, but it did have a better handle on the storm clusters west of Washington and across the mountains.

August 29 storm doppler radar Thursday evening NAM

HRRR Model Forecast

This had less activity compared to the NAM and actual report at this time. This is in second place for now.

August 29 storm doppler radar Thursday evening HRRR

Thursday Evening Set Up

The stationary front is the instigator in the atmosphere. Since it does not have a firm push or direction, there are ripples in the atmosphere that are subtle and also do not have direction. Weak Low Pressure will ride along the front and help the mountain shower cluster move east.

August 29 weather storm map Thunderstorm evening

 

Live Radar Widget

Computer Model ‘Suggestions’

NAM 3 Km Model

8 PM Thu through 8 AM Fri

This looks like the better performer this time. It brings the storm cluster through metr0 Baltimore around midnight. The stronger southern cluster fades, while the northern cluster gets the energy and may enhance through early Friday, just before sunrise near Philadelphia. Rain showers reach the Delaware beaches through sunrise.

August 29 weather storm radar forecast NAM

 

Snapshots

10 PM

August 29 weather storm radar forecast NAM 10 PM

 

11 PM

August 29 weather storm radar forecast NAM 11 PM

 

Midnight

August 29 weather storm radar forecast NAM midnight

 

1 AM Friday

August 29 weather storm radar forecast NAM Friday 1 AM

 

5 AM Friday

August 29 weather storm radar forecast NAM Friday 5 AM

 

HRRR Model

8 PM Thu through 6 AM Fri

This is updated more frequently but seems less accurate this evening. So, it may be underplaying the event and missing some energy aloft. I am showing this for posterity, just in case it ends up being the better one.

August 29 weather storm radar forecast HRRR

 

Midnight

August 29 weather storm radar forecast HRRR Midnight

 

2 AM Friday

August 29 weather storm radar forecast HRRR Friday 2 AM

 

6 AM Friday

August 29 weather storm radar forecast HRRR Friday 6 AM

 

Looking Ahead

FRIDAY AUGUST 30

Morning Temperatures

August 29 weather temperatures Friday morning

Morning Radar at 8 AM

August 29 weather rain radar Friday morning

Radar Simulation 8 AM to 8 PM

August 29 weather rain radar Friday

 

Afternoon Snapshot at 4 PM

August 29 weather rain radar Friday afternoon

 

Afternoon Wind at 4 PM

August 29 weather wind Friday afternoon

 

Wind Forecast 8 AM to 4 PM

These winds increasing FROM the East and Northeast will do two things:

  • Cooler temperatures
  • Rip Currents along the beaches

August 29 weather wind Friday

Afternoon Temperatures

  • Many areas east of the mountains will be in the 70s.
  • Many areas west of the mountains will hold in the 90s.

August 29 weather temperatures Friday afternoon

LOOKING AHEAD

Saturday to Monday

August 29 weather Labor Day weekend

Saturday Night

The better chance for storms will be overnight.

August 29 weather Labor Day Saturday

Sunday Night

Shifting the focus of rain and storms to the south.

August 29 weather Labor Day Sunday

Labor Day Monday

Clearing and improving weather.

August 29 weather Labor Day Monday

7 Day Forecast

The high heat is done for a while. Cooler winds on Friday with a higher chance for showers and storms into the weekend. More rain is likely overnight.

Next week: Clearing and sustained cooler weather.

August 29 weather forecast 7 day Thursday

Four Supermoons In A Row

See more about the 4 Supermoons Through November here:

4 Supermoons Of 2024

 

THANK YOU:

Baltimore Magazine Readers Choice Best Of Baltimore

 

Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat August 10

We raised OVER $104,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

Click here or the image to donate:

 

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

 

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF