Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 11 PM AND Flood Watch Until Midnight

Thursday, August 29, 2024

The transition from this latest surge of heat to cooler weather is being met with a new round of strong to severe thunderstorms. This may include claps of thunder through midnight as they move east and residual showers at the beaches by sunrise.

The complication we have is a stationary front that will be wandering or meandering for a few days. There is little influence to push this, so where it located is where the storms will set up, and can be off from the forecast models.

I want to show you the two short-range models for this event through Friday morning and see how they compare to the live radar. Note that these are suggestions, but one model may have a better handle than another. The forecast challenge is to identify which one to follow.

Alert Reminder

WATCH = POTENTIAL. This means it might happen but not promised. The ingredients are there to form these storms.

WARNING = PROBLEM. This means it IS HAPPENING AND BEING TRACKED.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Any storm may reach the criteria to produce:

• Flooding
• Wind Gusts Over 58 mph
• Large Hail Over 1-inch Diameter
• Isolated Tornadoes

This includes the western suburbs of Baltimore in Howard and Carroll Counties of Maryland, metro Washington DC, and westward through the mountains. This area will get the storms earlier. As they move east overnight, they will weaken.

Flood Watch

There is potential for heavy rainfall to produce rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour in slow-moving storm cells. This includes mainly the suburbs on the west side of Washington, DC, and west to the mountains. This is not expected in central Maryland and metro Baltimore, as the storms will weaken as they move east tonight.

Nowcasting Back at 6 PM

I grabbed the Doppler Radar and compared it to the NAM 3 Km Model and HRRR Model. This may help to show which is performing better today and is more likely to be accurate tonight. The NAM is much more active than the HRRR with this event.

Doppler Radar Snapshot

NAM 3 Km Model Forecast

This was not perfect, but it did have a better handle on the storm clusters west of Washington and across the mountains.

HRRR Model Forecast

This had less activity compared to the NAM and actual report at this time. This is in second place for now.

Thursday Evening Set Up

The stationary front is the instigator in the atmosphere. Since it does not have a firm push or direction, there are ripples in the atmosphere that are subtle and also do not have direction. Weak Low Pressure will ride along the front and help the mountain shower cluster move east.

Live Radar Widget

Computer Model ‘Suggestions’

NAM 3 Km Model

8 PM Thu through 8 AM Fri

This looks like the better performer this time. It brings the storm cluster through metr0 Baltimore around midnight. The stronger southern cluster fades, while the northern cluster gets the energy and may enhance through early Friday, just before sunrise near Philadelphia. Rain showers reach the Delaware beaches through sunrise.

Snapshots

10 PM

11 PM

Midnight

1 AM Friday

5 AM Friday

HRRR Model

8 PM Thu through 6 AM Fri

This is updated more frequently but seems less accurate this evening. So, it may be underplaying the event and missing some energy aloft. I am showing this for posterity, just in case it ends up being the better one.

Midnight

2 AM Friday

6 AM Friday

Looking Ahead

FRIDAY AUGUST 30

Morning Temperatures

Morning Radar at 8 AM

Radar Simulation 8 AM to 8 PM

Afternoon Snapshot at 4 PM

Afternoon Wind at 4 PM

Wind Forecast 8 AM to 4 PM

These winds increasing FROM the East and Northeast will do two things:

• Cooler temperatures
• Rip Currents along the beaches

Afternoon Temperatures

• Many areas east of the mountains will be in the 70s.
• Many areas west of the mountains will hold in the 90s.

LOOKING AHEAD

Saturday to Monday

Saturday Night

The better chance for storms will be overnight.

Sunday Night

Shifting the focus of rain and storms to the south.

Labor Day Monday

Clearing and improving weather.

7 Day Forecast

The high heat is done for a while. Cooler winds on Friday with a higher chance for showers and storms into the weekend. More rain is likely overnight.

Next week: Clearing and sustained cooler weather.

‘

Four Supermoons In A Row

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF