August 18 Severe Storm Risk Today And Ernesto A Tropical Storm Moving North Of Bermuda

Sunday, August 18 2024

Morning Report

Ahead of a cold front and new air mass, strong storms will be developing this afternoon. NOAA has increased the risk for severe storms in our region and along the Eastern US.

The number of showers and severe storms we get may depend on breaks of sun and local surging of higher temperatures as a result to feed into the storm formation.

More clouds will keep us cooler and lead to less strong or severe storms.

SEVERE STORM RISK

Potential for storms to produce high winds with gusts over 60 mph, Flash Flooding from slow moving storms, and hail over 1″ in diameter. Tornado risk is low, but an isolated spin-up is possible.

Ernesto is now a Tropical Storm with sustained winds of 70 mph this morning. After making a direct hit on Bermuda, it knocked out power to 70% of the island. The storm is moving away into the North Atlantic but still producing high waves along the East Coast.

The week ahead may be a Fall Preview. Temps will drop into the 50s and, farther inland, 40s one or two mornings.

SEVERE STORM RISK WIDE VIEW

This matches up with the push of the Cold Front into the Southeast US as the instigator for today.

Morning Surface Weather

Low Pressure near Toronto has caused extensive flooding in Ontario, Canada, this weekend. The trailing Cold Front through the Ohio Valley is also extending into the Deep South, helping develop widespread strong to severe storms this afternoon.

Behind it is the Pre-Fall Air Mass that will take over much of the work week ahead.

Tropical Storm Ernesto has 70 mph winds and may skirt Nova Scotia in coastal Canada in a few days.

5 AM Stats From National Hurricane Center

———————————————-

• LOCATION…34.6N 63.0W
• ABOUT 690 MI…1110 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
• ABOUT 980 MI…1580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…978 MB…28.88 INCHES

LOCAL WEATHER

Live Radar Widget

The flare-up of storms will begin between Noon and 2 PM. The peak activity will be 3 PM to 10 PM.

FORECAST

Radar Simulation: Noon to Midnight

Snapshots

2 PM

Showers and thunderstorms will be developing in the mountains.

4 PM

Storms may reach metro areas… some in Central Maryland may be SLOW MOVERS. These can dump heavy rain and lead to local flooding like we saw yesterday around Frederick.

Afternoon Temperatures

This will be determined by any breaks of sun and the early development of showers.

6 PM

Prime Time for severe storms in central Maryland and metro areas.

8 PM

Severe Storm Line may be moving through Philadelphia and to the Eastern Shore of Maryland.

-EXTENDED FORECAST BELOW-

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY August 18

Sunrise at 6:23 AM

Sunset at 7:57 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  66ºF

Record 51ºF in 1979

Normal High in Baltimore: 87ºF

Record 96ºF 1995; 2002; 2019

Summer Hot Day Totals At BWI

8 Days at or above 100ºF

39 Days total at or above 90ºF 

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MONDAY AUGUST 19

The timing of the cold front and new airmass will bring in a drop of temperatures and shift of the rain focus during the afternoon.

Morning Temperatures

Noon Temperatures

This may be the peak temperatures for the day in central Maryland and nearby as the cold front will be arriving and pushing south in the afternoon.

Radar Simulation Noon to Midnight

The cooler air will push the showers and storms to develop during the afternoon and evening.

6 PM Radar Suggestion

The cold front will be shifting south, moving the focus for strong or severe storms into Southern Maryland and Southeast VA. There will also be some leftover showers and storms North of Philadelphia into the Poconos.

The mountain showers will be in response to the cooler air arriving.

Jet Stream Sunday to Thursday

The animation shows the 500mb heights. This is around 18,000 ft and represents the warm and cool air in the atmosphere that responds to how high it is measured.

Here, we can see the influx and established Cool Pattern for much of the week.

Wednesday Morning Snapshot

The morning will be chilly, with a Deep Upper-Level Trough centered in New England and stretching down the East Coast.

Some inland areas will drop into the 40s.

7 Day Forecast

After the storms pass, an Early Fall-Like airmass will settle in for the week. While I am showing 50s for Baltimore metro areas on Wednesday morning, some inland areas will be in the 40s.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF