Weekend Rain And Thunderstorm Forecast Suggested Timeline

Weekend Rain And Thunderstorm Forecast Suggested Timeline

Friday August 16 2024

The weekend will bring our transition from late summer heat to a cool down next week. In between, we will have a few days with showers and thunderstorms that may have your weekend plans in question. There is a strong hurricane well off the East Coast, and that is NOT the reason for our rain. That will only bring high waves to the coast.

In this report, I want to show you the most reliable computer model forecast for this weekend. The maps are radar simulations and only suggestions. They are NOT PROMISES. I hope that the general placement of timing and location may help you plan ahead or anticipate what to expect.

Friday Evening Set Up

Low Pressure in the Great Lakes is the driving force. Cooler air being pulled in from the North is colliding with the building heat and humidity. The complex frontal boundary (triple point) in Ohio is responsible for storms today that have reached the mountains of western Maryland. This will be the source or our storms this weekend into Monday.

Hurricane Ernesto has 100 mph winds and continues to charge in on Bermuda.  This will bring increasing rip currents to the East Coast beaches, but it is not the source of our rain or wind.

Live Radar Widget

SATURDAY MORNING

Midnight to Noon Radar Simulation

Snapshots

6 AM

Potential for showers and some thunderstorms around sunrise.

10 AM

A cluster of showers will shift and focus around the northern part of the Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva through noon.

SATURDAY PM

1 PM to Midnight Radar Simulation

6 PM

Thundershowers will be developing during the late afternoon and evening.

10 PM

A strong cluster of storms may cross metro areas of central Maryland after sunset.

SUNDAY Noon to Midnight

Thundershowers will develop during the afternoon. Perhaps more than shown here. The cluster of storms with the cold front may cross Central Maryland between 4 PM and 10 PM.

Snapshot Suggestion

4 PM

7 PM

10 PM

THREE DAY WEATHER PATTERN:

SATURDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY MORNING

Three days of rain. Saturday looks like morning showers and storms, then a second impulse in the evening and at night.

Sunday looks more widespread for most of the region.

Monday will shift the storm threat farther south and east, while the chance for dry weather will arrive from the North and West.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING

Region Wide chance for thunderstorms between 2 PM and 8 PM is about 60%.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING

Region Wide chance for thunderstorms between 2 PM and 8 PM is about 90%.

This is the day of the weekend, most likely to be impacted in the afternoon and evening.

MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING

Southern SHIFT of the chance for thunderstorms between 2 PM and 8 PM is about 60%.

Less farther inland west and north as the new air mass will be moving in with cooler air.

ERNESTO FORECAST

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track

This has a direct path through Bermuda. This small island has only had 18 direct hits since 1850. That is once every 9 to 10 years.

Wave Forecast: Sunday

Local beaches may get 4 to 6 Ft swells from the distant storm.

7 Day Forecast

The transition from summer heat to cooler pre-fall temps next week will bring a few days with thunderstorms. These will be most widespread on Sunday and are NOT from Ernesto.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF